Portland Timbers - The Bad Math

So the Portland TImbers pulled together a positive result on Saturday night. Well, more accurately, they managed a result that wasn't negative. Saturday's away tie to the (heretofore woeful) Toronto Lynx, at least lifted them from the 20 points on which they had stalled. For that to get them into the post-season, however, will take a series of minor miracles and major collapses.

A casual glance at the standings doesn't reveal the near-death realities of the Timbers 2006. After all, they're presently only four points away from the post-season promised land; they've got 21 points, while team in the final playoff spot has only 25. It's only when you look at the teams above them whom they can reasonably catch and compare the Timbers' 21 points from 22 games played to, say, the...

Atlanta Silverbacks' 28 points from 18 games.
Puerto Rico Islanders' 28 points from 18 games.
Virginia Beach Mariners' 27 points from 18 games.
Seattle Sounders' 25 points from 22 games (Yessss!!!).
Miami FC's 23 points from 19 games.

...and it's just looking grim. Given Portland's form - e.g. they're really unlikely to win the rest of their games - Seattle's the only team within plausible reach. But what are the odds of Atlanta, Puerto Rico, or even Miami, failing to pick up any points in those three or four "bonus" games? Pretty damn long. Actually, given current form, the Timbers should count themselves lucky if the "heretofore woeful" Toronto Lynx don't catch them.

Ah well. A longer off-season just means more time for the annual tradition of worrying about the Timbers' future in Portland (though last I heard this was somewhat secure).

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2 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think that the Timber's problem is a lazy defense (with the exception of Saunders in goal) and their new coach. They also need to recruit some height.

With regard to the new coach, the word on the street is he has done little or nothing to develop any kind of relationship with the players and he threatens them with their jobs before and after every game. He benches older players to put in players he brought with him from his last team, and he supposedly gives no constructive criticism and is of the "you should be able to read my mind" camp when it comes to coaching. Get rid of him and the timbers might be able to find their legs again.

The Manly Ferry said...

To anyone reading: this definitely counts as insight. I've been following these guys at such a distance that I couldn't begin to say what's wrong. But I have seen some chatter about Agnello's willingness to mingle talk of the latest result with talk of players' livelihoods. Perhaps it's more than chatter?