Guevara: One Bad Penny, Several Shoes

As Big Apple Soccer reported yesterday, and as Marc Connolly confirmed today (to find "the business," check the May 11 entry; they don't have permalinks up yet for USSoccerplayers.com, but I hear their working on it), FC Dallas has come a-courtin' for a discarded and unlamented Chivas USA-reject, Amado Guevara. There's not much point denying the weirdness of this transaction-in-progress - and there's also FC Dallas' puzzling, and ongoing, disinterest in shoring up the defense, which most would agree (I think) counts as their greatest weakness. (Though, curiously, DC United shares the same mysterious quirk.)

That obvious eccentricity aside, there's another obvious question, which Connolly phrased pretty well:

"And if the deal with Chivas USA for draft picks does go through, it doesn't necessarily mean the end of Carlos Ruiz's days in Frisco. The prospect of those two CONCACAF stars linking up in the attack is exciting, but would you want to have both of these personalities in one locker room? Me neither."

Toxic as that lockerroom could be, there's another potentially volatile ingredient to consider: Ramon Nunez. How will this player, assigned a major role at the start of the season, react to a noted prima donna like Guevara competing for that role? Naturally, I can't say for sure, but I do have my hunches (in a phrase, not well). Assuming they take on Guevara, will Dallas be the first team in the league to field a 2-6-2 formation? Lord knows they've got enough midfielders to do it.

Ah, It Was Guevara

The folks at MLS Underground posted what looks like a plausible explanation to the clusterf*@# that is/was the Amado Guevara trade. Turns out Amado refused the move. And before you blame Canada, it sounds like Mo Johnston was the issue (whose idea was it to force a reunion anyway?).

At any rate, there's something in there about Guevara considering only FC Dallas or a return to Honduras as well. Fun trade stuff, isn't it?

Here's more from LA Soccer News, the source that broke this story by getting the crucial part correct - e.g. that Chivas traded Guevara to TFC (so, it was correct, but affected by an Act of Guevara; by the way, are those always red card offenses?). And, from what they're reporting, it looks like Paulo Nagamura is still headed to Chivas.

UPDATE: Sideline Views has a couple good pieces on the Guevara situation: first, there's some speculation on the tactical adjustments to cover the (let's face it, small-ish) hole Guevara left behind; second, there's a nice post of memorable Guevara moments.

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Guevara Gone?

Thanks to a Bloglines feed to Sideline Views, which took me straight to LA Soccer News, which seems like a "mother ship" of sorts to that blog, I'm able to pass on word/rumor of Amado Guevara going (way) north to Toronto FC. Coming the other way, Paulo Nagamura and "a draft pick."

Holy poop. Assuming this is true, I can't help but think they'll be writing articles like the one Ives Galarcep turned in to his day job in LA papers in the near future.

All I can say is Guevara never seemed to settle in LA, at least not on the field. One more thing: I can't see Guevara doing any better in Toronto under Mo Johnston than he did under Preki. Lord knows they need creativity up Canada way, but how's Guevara going to mesh with, say, Ronnie O'Brien? Carl Robinson? (Don't know what his ego is like, but I have a fair picture of Guevara's). Alecko Eskandarian (who also seems to have a fuse)?

On Chivas' side of the ledger, they're losing a player who gave every impression of being locker-room cancer; they also got (another) gritty player in Nagamura. Had Guevara ever managed to participate in the Chivas attack, I'd write something about the Goats having to change their style...obviously, that's not necessary here.

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Chivas USA: 2007 Season Preview

Past
MLSnet.com: 2006 Season Wrap
MLSnet.com: Big Questions after '06
My Thoughts on Chivas' '06 (Know my biases)

Present
2006-07 Off-Season Changes
Soccer New England's Ins & Outs for most roster changes

Chivas USA Roster from MLSnet.com (given what they had for Chicago, I'm a bit dubious)

And now, the Future

Key Men
Amado Guevara - Can I call Guevara the “Great Brown Hope” without getting into trouble? In all seriousness, Chivas may have made the smartest “dumb” trade of the off-season with this; he’s not just a proven quantity in the league, but a proven-MVP quantity. The big concern here comes with the possibility of Guevara deciding first-year head coach Preki doesn’t know what he’s doing; at that point, bringing in Guevara could be the dumbest smart trade of the off-season.

Ante Razov - You can’t leave a 14 goal, 8 assist player off a “key men” list of any kind. He all but carried the Chivas offense for some stretches last season. (And, is it just me or does Razov look stoned in his profile picture?)

Jesse Marsch - This guy’s demeanor just screams “leader.” At 34, the young legs might not hold up (don't know for sure), but he keeps things organized with rising stars like Sacha Kljestan - who, by the way, I really, really wanted to add here, but one can have only so many key men.

Orlando Perez - With both Claudio Suarez and Carlos Llamosa being born in the 60s (!), Perez stands as the most mobile of the wise, old heads in the back line. The arrival of Alex Zotinca from Kansas City could help here.

Jonathan Bornstein - As much as I like Bornstein - he’s alert, smart, and skilled, so what’s not to like? - he rates in this group in his capacity as a one-man depth machine. His capacity to plug so many different holes on the field makes him a deeper asset than he’d be on playing ability alone.

Additional Assets (Chicago didn’t have this ‘cause I didn’t think they had any)
Depth at ‘Keep - With Brad Guzan and Preston Burpo, this time doesn’t have a “1-2” in goal so much as a “1-1a.” Both are solid ‘keepers and give Chivas plenty of depth in nets.

Liabilities
Spring/Autumn Defense - In his write-up of the 2006 season, Luis Bueno mentioned a “lack of concentration” as costing Chivas games. How many of those came due to a green-ish defense? On the other side of the age equation are Llamosa and Suarez. Between the lack of foot-speed and the lack of experience, Chivas could again struggle on defense.

Scoring - If last year’s regular-season stretch-run showed anything, it’s how dependent this team was on Razov for scoring. They didn’t add any players of major note in the off-season, but I’ve read a nice(-ish) thing or two about Matt Taylor, then there’s word of Laurent Merlin perhaps joining the team, Maykel Galindo, who played well in the USL Division 1, joining from Seattle, etc. The question is whether those players can make up for the losses of Jesus Morales (tricky, fast), Juan Francisco Palencia, and Juan Pablo Garcia. On paper, though, it’s hard to not be dubious.

Unknowns
Jorge Barrera - Shows in that link as a midfielder, but the roster shows him as a defender. If the latter is the case, maybe he’s the answer to the concerns about the spring/autumn defense. (If you hit the link, by the way, you’ll get bits and pieces about some of the other new players).

New Coach - It could be I’m giving Preki the benefit of the doubt by slipping him down here, but, till a man has a record, it seems more fair to list him in the unknowns. The biggest potential problem, I’ve already mentioned: Guevara. But he’d only offer the most dramatically negative reaction; a lack of faith in the new coach will manifest itself in a dozen little ways. So, for Preki’s sake, let’s hope it doesn’t happen.

Prospects - Using Gambling Analogies
Picture a baseball poker game with some cards showing all around the table; by acquiring Guevara, Chivas is gambling on filling an inside straight; because it’s baseball, there are a fair number of wild cards in play, but it’s a risky maneuver nonetheless. It’s not for nothing that I view acquiring Guevara constitutes one of the highest potential upside gambles since Eddie Johnson left Dallas for Kansas City. Overall, the seeming improvement of a couple Western Conference teams has me wondering whether they'll be able to keep up in 2007. I wouldn't write 'em off, either, but suspect they'll struggle.