A week ago Tuesday, I took a stab at predicting the quarterfinals for the Gold Cup. Here's what I came up with:
Costa Rica v. Guatemala
U.S.A. v. Canada
Mexico v. El Salvador
Haiti v. Panama
So, how'd I do? Here's what how things panned out:
Canada v. Guatemala
U.S.A. v. Panama
Honduras v. Guadeloupe
Mexico v. Costa Rica
Obviously, I missed a few, especially when it came to who would face whom. Then again, I got - let's see - six of the eight teams placed...not so hard, I suppose, given only twelve teams in the hat.
Seeing as my first stab at predictions went so swimmingly, I'll just confine myself to some observations. Taking it by bullet points:
- I don't envy Canada the game against Guatemala. Still, I hope our neighbors to the north beat the Central Americans. It's not that I'm nervous about meeting the latter again, so much as I'm not relishing the idea of watching a second U.S. v. Guatemala (which, unless I'm misreading things - again - is what would happen; but semifinal #1 pits the winner of quarterfinals #1 and #2, right?).
- Speaking of, Panama won't be a walk in the park either. But I'm thinking it will be a good game.
- Honduras looks hot, or at least that's one possible reading of the 5-0 drubbing they meted out on Cuba in their final group game. Guadeloupe looked a lot better after the win over Canada than they do after letting a seemingly lackluster Costa Rica into the quarters.
- It's this last detail that makes me think Mexico got the biggest kiss for the quarters.
All right, then. Nothing to do now but peruse some previews and wait for the weekend's action. Good stuff.
(#########)
Showing posts with label Guadeloupe. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Guadeloupe. Show all posts
Gold Cup Update: Setting the Bar (and Raising It)
Group A wrapped up last night in the 2007 CONCACAF Gold Cup with something of a restoration. Costa Rica beat upstart Guadeloupe while Canada knocked off Haiti - and so order and perception returned to the region.
No less consequentially, Guadeloupe's three games in the tournament set the third-place bar at 4 points with a goal-differential of zero. In any case, the tournament's quarterfinal formula leaves Guadeloupe waiting on results from Groups B & C to see whether they'll have the honor of playing the first-place team from Group B (guess who?) or Group C - or none of the above.
Looking at the two remaining groups going forward, the U.S. could do Guadeloupe a big favor tonight by knocking off El Salvador; said loss would stall that team on three points, thereby sending the French protectorate into the quarterfinals with no more questions asked. Then again, a "Trinibago" upset of Guatemala would do the same. For their part, El Salvador might be wise to play for the draw, counting on an competitive assist from an American team looking to avoid injury and stave off fatigue - though there's a question as to whether whiny fans (like me!) will tolerate such cynicism. In fact, a draw for either El Salvador or Guatemala would then depend on goal-differential and, by association (I think), the total number of goals scored. And the totals are interesting here: Guadeloupe managed three goals so far, while El Salvador has two and Guatemala one. With that in mind, I'm thinking the Guatemalans will play hard tonight.
By way of a curious, relevant aside, the lead paragraph to the match report on Canada's win over Guadeloupe reads, "Canada is poised for another CONCACAF Gold Cup title." Assuming Guatemala meets (well, my) expectations, they'd meet Canada in the quarters...that ought to be interesting...more so than that lead would suggest.
Turning to Group C, Panama could certainly either draw or upset an anxious Mexico, though the fact that the latter has three goals to their credit means they'd pass Guadeloupe in anything but a goalless draw; what happens in that event, I don't know on the larger scale. Within Group C, though, that goalless draw would leave Mexico second best to Honduras, who already have four points and four goals scored. assuming the latter gets a result of any kind against Cuba. Taken together, however, Mexico has the tougher road and needs the most help.
Last but not least, I found a little to like in Jamie Trecker's most recent column on the evovling relationship between the United States' team and its fans. Trecker's basic premise - that U.S. fans not only expect results now, but are increasingly expecting good ones - strikes me as uncontroversial; put another way, I know this applies to me. But one line - and it's one I happen to like - may get a rise out of some readers:
Hmmm...discuss...I mean, if you wanna....
No less consequentially, Guadeloupe's three games in the tournament set the third-place bar at 4 points with a goal-differential of zero. In any case, the tournament's quarterfinal formula leaves Guadeloupe waiting on results from Groups B & C to see whether they'll have the honor of playing the first-place team from Group B (guess who?) or Group C - or none of the above.
Looking at the two remaining groups going forward, the U.S. could do Guadeloupe a big favor tonight by knocking off El Salvador; said loss would stall that team on three points, thereby sending the French protectorate into the quarterfinals with no more questions asked. Then again, a "Trinibago" upset of Guatemala would do the same. For their part, El Salvador might be wise to play for the draw, counting on an competitive assist from an American team looking to avoid injury and stave off fatigue - though there's a question as to whether whiny fans (like me!) will tolerate such cynicism. In fact, a draw for either El Salvador or Guatemala would then depend on goal-differential and, by association (I think), the total number of goals scored. And the totals are interesting here: Guadeloupe managed three goals so far, while El Salvador has two and Guatemala one. With that in mind, I'm thinking the Guatemalans will play hard tonight.
By way of a curious, relevant aside, the lead paragraph to the match report on Canada's win over Guadeloupe reads, "Canada is poised for another CONCACAF Gold Cup title." Assuming Guatemala meets (well, my) expectations, they'd meet Canada in the quarters...that ought to be interesting...more so than that lead would suggest.
Turning to Group C, Panama could certainly either draw or upset an anxious Mexico, though the fact that the latter has three goals to their credit means they'd pass Guadeloupe in anything but a goalless draw; what happens in that event, I don't know on the larger scale. Within Group C, though, that goalless draw would leave Mexico second best to Honduras, who already have four points and four goals scored. assuming the latter gets a result of any kind against Cuba. Taken together, however, Mexico has the tougher road and needs the most help.
Last but not least, I found a little to like in Jamie Trecker's most recent column on the evovling relationship between the United States' team and its fans. Trecker's basic premise - that U.S. fans not only expect results now, but are increasingly expecting good ones - strikes me as uncontroversial; put another way, I know this applies to me. But one line - and it's one I happen to like - may get a rise out of some readers:
"Some fans have the odd notion that cautions and cards are supposed to be doled out equally among teams. And some fans countenance nary a discouraging word, just as some fans inexplicably worship, say, the Cleveland Browns."
"But where fans of this ilk were once the only people paying attention to the sport, today they're in the minority. The soccer geeks are being overrun by the jocks. This means that news coverage and the reactions to the team's performances are becoming more sophisticated and more nuanced.
Hmmm...discuss...I mean, if you wanna....
Gold Cup Report; The Yanks' "Mexico Dilemma"
Before picking through the past two days’ MLS and U.S. Men’s-related Gold Cup results (I’ve had “things,” none of which should interest the present audience), I wanted to post some brief comments on the tournament in general.
Even though the print coverage has been pretty swell in general, I thought I'd chuck in a one-stop update or those not keeping tabs. The Gold Cup’s first two days turned in the following results:
Canada 2 - 1 Costa Rica (what?! Forza Canada!!)
Haiti 1 - 1 Guadeloupe
El Salvador 2 - 1 Trinidad & Tobago
All I want to say about that is, what a delightfully baffling tournament so far - especially the Canada/Costa Rica result. Costa Rica needing results from the next twoo sets up some lovely intrigue in Group A; I figured Haiti might cause some headaches, but now have to wonder whether 1) Guadeloupe might as well, or, 2) whether Haiti is weaker than I suspected. Good stuff.
The Group B results followed expectations a bit more closely, what with the chaos in the Trinidadian camp. And, without digging too deeply into my thoughts on the U.S.’s performance against Guatemala (more later), let’s just say I’m happy to be getting Trinidad first.
In semi-related materials, something that ran a couple days ago in the Houston Chronicle - something I had intended to pass on yesterday, but couldn’t due to “things” - laid out CONCACAF-only rankings for the participating teams. The rankings themselves aren’t all that shocking - e.g. Mexico is #1, we’re #2, Costa Rica’s #3, etc. - but it’s kinda nice to have rankings within the larger FIFA rankings available.
The 1-2 set-up, however, begs a question that the present tournament may or may not answer: why is Mexico, who the U.S. Men have beaten with meaningful regularity, still ranked #1? For what it’s worth, I don’t think the ranking is wrong so much as it could use some explaining. Here’s a stab at it: while we do beat Mexico, we don’t often look like world-beaters doing it; also, there’s the fact that we’ve never beat them in Mexico...everywhere else, yes, but Mexico, no.
That last detail is a curious thing, but it’s one that strikes me as especially meaningful. It provides a rejoinder of sorts to a contention in an Ives Galarcep article that the U.S. could “prove something” by beating Mexico in the Gold Cup final. While the contention that we need to prove anything is controversial on its own, it's the home-field angle that leaves me dubious on signing off on Galarcep's specific argument. Here’s the thing, we could deliver a humiliating, tear-provoking ass-pounding in the final, riding the score up to 14-0 and I’m around 90% certain the Mexican players and coaches would unpack the usual comments about American’s “playing like women.”
Given that, I don’t personally believe that the coming Gold Cup final - assuming both the U.S. and Mexico make it - will bring any meaningful changes in the perception of both teams. Even if we win our second consecutive Gold Cup, the changing of the guard will only come if and when Mexico perceives itself as the weaker team - and I can only see that day coming when we beat Mexico in Mexico. That’s when the denials will finally ring hollow and the crown fall from Mexico’s head. After all, we’ve gone 7-1-0 (W-L-T) in the past eight meetings and that hasn’t changed a thing. In other words, so long as any form of comforting excuse remains at hand, Mexicans won't buy into second-place status.
Another way to dry up the excuses would be to play the Gold Cup outside the U.S. (how is it we keep winning this no-bid hosting gig?) I'm less certain of this, but beating Mexico in any other Central venue would do go some distance to drying up excuses as well. But, seeing as that can’t come about for another couple years, seems like we’ll have an earlier crack at winning in Mexico.
Can we do it? Sure. Paraguay did just a couple weeks ago. And I don't even think they've got Mexico's number like we have lately.
Even though the print coverage has been pretty swell in general, I thought I'd chuck in a one-stop update or those not keeping tabs. The Gold Cup’s first two days turned in the following results:
Canada 2 - 1 Costa Rica (what?! Forza Canada!!)
Haiti 1 - 1 Guadeloupe
El Salvador 2 - 1 Trinidad & Tobago
All I want to say about that is, what a delightfully baffling tournament so far - especially the Canada/Costa Rica result. Costa Rica needing results from the next twoo sets up some lovely intrigue in Group A; I figured Haiti might cause some headaches, but now have to wonder whether 1) Guadeloupe might as well, or, 2) whether Haiti is weaker than I suspected. Good stuff.
The Group B results followed expectations a bit more closely, what with the chaos in the Trinidadian camp. And, without digging too deeply into my thoughts on the U.S.’s performance against Guatemala (more later), let’s just say I’m happy to be getting Trinidad first.
In semi-related materials, something that ran a couple days ago in the Houston Chronicle - something I had intended to pass on yesterday, but couldn’t due to “things” - laid out CONCACAF-only rankings for the participating teams. The rankings themselves aren’t all that shocking - e.g. Mexico is #1, we’re #2, Costa Rica’s #3, etc. - but it’s kinda nice to have rankings within the larger FIFA rankings available.
The 1-2 set-up, however, begs a question that the present tournament may or may not answer: why is Mexico, who the U.S. Men have beaten with meaningful regularity, still ranked #1? For what it’s worth, I don’t think the ranking is wrong so much as it could use some explaining. Here’s a stab at it: while we do beat Mexico, we don’t often look like world-beaters doing it; also, there’s the fact that we’ve never beat them in Mexico...everywhere else, yes, but Mexico, no.
That last detail is a curious thing, but it’s one that strikes me as especially meaningful. It provides a rejoinder of sorts to a contention in an Ives Galarcep article that the U.S. could “prove something” by beating Mexico in the Gold Cup final. While the contention that we need to prove anything is controversial on its own, it's the home-field angle that leaves me dubious on signing off on Galarcep's specific argument. Here’s the thing, we could deliver a humiliating, tear-provoking ass-pounding in the final, riding the score up to 14-0 and I’m around 90% certain the Mexican players and coaches would unpack the usual comments about American’s “playing like women.”
Given that, I don’t personally believe that the coming Gold Cup final - assuming both the U.S. and Mexico make it - will bring any meaningful changes in the perception of both teams. Even if we win our second consecutive Gold Cup, the changing of the guard will only come if and when Mexico perceives itself as the weaker team - and I can only see that day coming when we beat Mexico in Mexico. That’s when the denials will finally ring hollow and the crown fall from Mexico’s head. After all, we’ve gone 7-1-0 (W-L-T) in the past eight meetings and that hasn’t changed a thing. In other words, so long as any form of comforting excuse remains at hand, Mexicans won't buy into second-place status.
Another way to dry up the excuses would be to play the Gold Cup outside the U.S. (how is it we keep winning this no-bid hosting gig?) I'm less certain of this, but beating Mexico in any other Central venue would do go some distance to drying up excuses as well. But, seeing as that can’t come about for another couple years, seems like we’ll have an earlier crack at winning in Mexico.
Can we do it? Sure. Paraguay did just a couple weeks ago. And I don't even think they've got Mexico's number like we have lately.
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