Gold Cup: Progress,a Correction (+ Donovan)

By the end of the night, we'll all know who meets whom in the quarterfinals of the CONCACAF Gold Cup...which takes me to the correction - or, rather, the clarification. At the end of last night's post, I figured we'd get Guadeloupe in the quarters. But several items I've come across today tell me we're more likely to pick up the third-place team from Group C. It's not a huge deal, but this is what happens when a body doesn't pay enough attention to the details in the formula for placement (e.g. with "3A" appearing twice and "3B" and "3C" appearing only once, it's "3A" that gets moved around).

Then again, this kind of is a big deal if it means we get Mexico in the quarters. And that's certainly not outside the realm of possibility. The Associated Press' think-piece aside, Mexico would have to screw up royal - or Panama would have to channel Argentina - for the Tricolores to fall behind El Salvador for the relevant spot.

Don't get me wrong: I certainly think we're good enough to beat Mexico. But can anyone say with a straight face that they'd rather face them than Guadeloupe?

In other Gold Cup-related news, I came across a couple interesting passages on Landon Donovan today. The first came out of Greg Lalas' review of last night's game for Sports Illustrated - and you'll find it waayyyy down the page (or right here):

"It was nice to see Landon being Landon. He's not the heart and soul of the U.S. national team. He never was and he never will be, no matter how much the media and the fans wish it to be true. He's a scientist, almost, a clinical striker with the cold creativity and precision of an assassin. Maybe that's why he crosses himself so often. Asking for forgiveness as much as for luck."

I think Lalas is on to something there. Did Landon demand the "heart and soul" job or was it thrust upon him? A few things, not least the decision to bail on Europe, suggests to me it fell in his lap due to his record scoring numbers. But maybe he should simply be a really, really good player for us and we'll get someone else to look after the leadership side (I'll take Jimmy Conrad).

Finally, another bit on Donovan came from something Marc Connolly wrote (can't link to it), but I think there's some truth to this as well:

"I don’t believe the FSC cameras caught this, but it was interesting to see Donovan shaking his head in frustration even after scoring on his second penalty kick try during that odd sequence of events at the end of the half. That, right there, is a quick snapshot of what makes him a good player."

OK, I'm done. Happy viewing tonight, for those who can see it. And, again, Forza Panama! Forza to the tune of five goals!

(########)

Gold Cup Update: Setting the Bar (and Raising It)

Group A wrapped up last night in the 2007 CONCACAF Gold Cup with something of a restoration. Costa Rica beat upstart Guadeloupe while Canada knocked off Haiti - and so order and perception returned to the region.

No less consequentially, Guadeloupe's three games in the tournament set the third-place bar at 4 points with a goal-differential of zero. In any case, the tournament's quarterfinal formula leaves Guadeloupe waiting on results from Groups B & C to see whether they'll have the honor of playing the first-place team from Group B (guess who?) or Group C - or none of the above.

Looking at the two remaining groups going forward, the U.S. could do Guadeloupe a big favor tonight by knocking off El Salvador; said loss would stall that team on three points, thereby sending the French protectorate into the quarterfinals with no more questions asked. Then again, a "Trinibago" upset of Guatemala would do the same. For their part, El Salvador might be wise to play for the draw, counting on an competitive assist from an American team looking to avoid injury and stave off fatigue - though there's a question as to whether whiny fans (like me!) will tolerate such cynicism. In fact, a draw for either El Salvador or Guatemala would then depend on goal-differential and, by association (I think), the total number of goals scored. And the totals are interesting here: Guadeloupe managed three goals so far, while El Salvador has two and Guatemala one. With that in mind, I'm thinking the Guatemalans will play hard tonight.

By way of a curious, relevant aside, the lead paragraph to the match report on Canada's win over Guadeloupe reads, "Canada is poised for another CONCACAF Gold Cup title." Assuming Guatemala meets (well, my) expectations, they'd meet Canada in the quarters...that ought to be interesting...more so than that lead would suggest.

Turning to Group C, Panama could certainly either draw or upset an anxious Mexico, though the fact that the latter has three goals to their credit means they'd pass Guadeloupe in anything but a goalless draw; what happens in that event, I don't know on the larger scale. Within Group C, though, that goalless draw would leave Mexico second best to Honduras, who already have four points and four goals scored. assuming the latter gets a result of any kind against Cuba. Taken together, however, Mexico has the tougher road and needs the most help.

Last but not least, I found a little to like in Jamie Trecker's most recent column on the evovling relationship between the United States' team and its fans. Trecker's basic premise - that U.S. fans not only expect results now, but are increasingly expecting good ones - strikes me as uncontroversial; put another way, I know this applies to me. But one line - and it's one I happen to like - may get a rise out of some readers:

"Some fans have the odd notion that cautions and cards are supposed to be doled out equally among teams. And some fans countenance nary a discouraging word, just as some fans inexplicably worship, say, the Cleveland Browns."

"But where fans of this ilk were once the only people paying attention to the sport, today they're in the minority. The soccer geeks are being overrun by the jocks. This means that news coverage and the reactions to the team's performances are becoming more sophisticated and more nuanced.

Hmmm...discuss...I mean, if you wanna....

Gold Cup Catch-Up: Standings, Mexico Loses (Ha, ha ha!)

With astonishing rapidity, the 2007 CONCACAF Gold Cup continued yesterday - and how!

Not only did Mexico stumble against Honduras (enjoy Luis Bueno's clinical breakdown), but yesterday featured another shock or two to perceptions: for instance, Guadeloupe beating Canada and Costa Rica's continued fizzle. A look at the standings (which show here, but I'll replicate them for convenience's sake below) only confirms that his been a delightfully unpredictable edition of the regional championship - and, thankfully, a few thousand people are getting out to see it.

At any rate, here are those standings:

Group A
Guadeloupe: 1-1-0 (w-d-l); 4 pts.
Canada: 1-0-1; 3 pts.
Haiti: 0-2-0; 2 pts.
Costa Rica: 0-1-1; 1 pt.

Group B
United States: 2-0-0; 6 pts.
El Salvador: 1-0-1; 3 pts.
Guatemala: 1-0-1; 3 pts.
Trinidad and Tobago: 0-0-2; 0 pts.

Group C
Panama: 1-1-0; 4 pts.
Honduras: 1-1-0; 4 pts.
Mexico: 1-0-1; 3 pts.
Cuba: 0-1-1; 1 pt.

With this tournament now hitting warp-speed, if only apparently, the big story still centers on Mexico's, um...delicate...situation. For reasons of mathematical/competitive incompetence, I thought a U.S. v. Mexico game couldn't possibly arrive in the next round (thanks to the quarterfinal system that has: 1A v. 2b; 1B v. 3A/3C; 1C v. 3A/3B; 2A v. 2C) till Steve Goff suggested otherwise. With that possibility in mind, I tried to work out the math, starting by checking who plays who in their final game; add that to the knowledge that the relevant spot (e.g. the team that the U.S. team plays) goes to the better of the third-place teams in Group A or C (though even that could get tricky, with the 1C v. 3A/3B game in play). So to start with who plays who:

June 11 (e.g. tonight): Costa Rica v. Guadeloupe; Haiti v. Canada
June 12: United States v. El Salvador; Guatemala v. "Trinibago"
June 13: Cuba v. Honduras; Mexico v. Panama

As someone, somewhere pointed out, it hardly begs imagining that Panama could top Mexico (and, if you think they're whining now...whoa nelly), which would strand them on three points; obviously, a draw would leave them stalled at four. Turning our gaze up to Group A, that would pit them against, potentially, any of the teams in Group A (with Costa Rica looking the long-shot). The scarier thing for Mexico (and those Group A teams) is that Honduras has Cuba, the weaker team of Group C so far...though who would be surprised if Cuba dropped Honduras? Then again, a Honduran win makes a Mexican one required, thus upping the stakes (delicious).

At any rate, it's probably possible for Mexico to come third in Group C for the same reasons it's possible for El Salvador to, currently, sit ahead of Guatemala in the Group B standings; goal-differential and the like. But is anyone out there seriously upset that we close with the Salvadorans? Maybe it's possible to nail down the permutations at this point and figure out who is likeliest to go where, but I'm not about to attempt it. Suffice to say, my first choice involves Mexico dropping out. No offense to them and, as proved so far in this Gold Cup, that would hardly level the hills and straighten the road to a U.S. victory...but, when potential enters the equation, things would look simpler without Mexico in the frame.

So, Forza Panama!

In any case, Ives Galarcep went and compiled Gold Cup power rankings post. It's a pretty interesting read and, funny as it seems to all of us who feel anxious about the U.S. performance so far, we are the only "perfect" team in there. Go us!

Gold Cup Report; The Yanks' "Mexico Dilemma"

Before picking through the past two days’ MLS and U.S. Men’s-related Gold Cup results (I’ve had “things,” none of which should interest the present audience), I wanted to post some brief comments on the tournament in general.

Even though the print coverage has been pretty swell in general, I thought I'd chuck in a one-stop update or those not keeping tabs. The Gold Cup’s first two days turned in the following results:

Canada 2 - 1 Costa Rica (what?! Forza Canada!!)
Haiti 1 - 1 Guadeloupe
El Salvador 2 - 1 Trinidad & Tobago

All I want to say about that is, what a delightfully baffling tournament so far - especially the Canada/Costa Rica result. Costa Rica needing results from the next twoo sets up some lovely intrigue in Group A; I figured Haiti might cause some headaches, but now have to wonder whether 1) Guadeloupe might as well, or, 2) whether Haiti is weaker than I suspected. Good stuff.

The Group B results followed expectations a bit more closely, what with the chaos in the Trinidadian camp. And, without digging too deeply into my thoughts on the U.S.’s performance against Guatemala (more later), let’s just say I’m happy to be getting Trinidad first.

In semi-related materials, something that ran a couple days ago in the Houston Chronicle - something I had intended to pass on yesterday, but couldn’t due to “things” - laid out CONCACAF-only rankings for the participating teams. The rankings themselves aren’t all that shocking - e.g. Mexico is #1, we’re #2, Costa Rica’s #3, etc. - but it’s kinda nice to have rankings within the larger FIFA rankings available.

The 1-2 set-up, however, begs a question that the present tournament may or may not answer: why is Mexico, who the U.S. Men have beaten with meaningful regularity, still ranked #1? For what it’s worth, I don’t think the ranking is wrong so much as it could use some explaining. Here’s a stab at it: while we do beat Mexico, we don’t often look like world-beaters doing it; also, there’s the fact that we’ve never beat them in Mexico...everywhere else, yes, but Mexico, no.

That last detail is a curious thing, but it’s one that strikes me as especially meaningful. It provides a rejoinder of sorts to a contention in an Ives Galarcep article that the U.S. could “prove something” by beating Mexico in the Gold Cup final. While the contention that we need to prove anything is controversial on its own, it's the home-field angle that leaves me dubious on signing off on Galarcep's specific argument. Here’s the thing, we could deliver a humiliating, tear-provoking ass-pounding in the final, riding the score up to 14-0 and I’m around 90% certain the Mexican players and coaches would unpack the usual comments about American’s “playing like women.”

Given that, I don’t personally believe that the coming Gold Cup final - assuming both the U.S. and Mexico make it - will bring any meaningful changes in the perception of both teams. Even if we win our second consecutive Gold Cup, the changing of the guard will only come if and when Mexico perceives itself as the weaker team - and I can only see that day coming when we beat Mexico in Mexico. That’s when the denials will finally ring hollow and the crown fall from Mexico’s head. After all, we’ve gone 7-1-0 (W-L-T) in the past eight meetings and that hasn’t changed a thing. In other words, so long as any form of comforting excuse remains at hand, Mexicans won't buy into second-place status.

Another way to dry up the excuses would be to play the Gold Cup outside the U.S. (how is it we keep winning this no-bid hosting gig?) I'm less certain of this, but beating Mexico in any other Central venue would do go some distance to drying up excuses as well. But, seeing as that can’t come about for another couple years, seems like we’ll have an earlier crack at winning in Mexico.

Can we do it? Sure. Paraguay did just a couple weeks ago. And I don't even think they've got Mexico's number like we have lately.