I know I'm supposed to be on hiatus, but something unique prompted a quick check-in.
Last night, while attending the Hillsboro, Oregon Tuesday Farmer's Market, I spotted my first David Beckham LA Galaxy jersey. Not that interesting, one might say, but the context is significant. To begin, when one sees a soccer shirt in Hillsboro, it will be a Mexican club teams 80 times out of 100; 19 times out of 100, it will be a Mexican National team jersey; I once saw someone wearing a generic Chicago Fire jersey, which resulted in a day-long meditation on how the hell such things happen. The crucial thing is, Mexican clubs rule Hillsboro; you may get Euro clubs' jerseys in Portland, but not in Hillsboro.
The second point of interest was the person wearing it and where she chose to wear it. The girl in question was a high school student, a white, "chunky-athletic" brunette whose general appearance suggested neither nerd nor princess; more accurately, she looked determinedly normal, as in she didn't have the appearance of one looking to set high-risk trends. And that brings us to the occasion: the Tuesday market is kind of Hillsboro's "big night out." The place is crawling with packs of teenagers, out on the town to see and be seen.
Here's how I put it all together: a young girl gets dressed up to go hang out with her friends in a decidedly high-traffic area, and one crawling with her peers; given that, she must, on some level, think a Beckham jersey is cool. Whether her statement was love of the game (doubtful), love of the player (more likely), or love of the shirt as an accessory, someone out my way thinks this whole Beckham-thing is pretty hip.
I call that evidence that the whole master-plan continues to work as intended....so far at least....
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Showing posts with label Hillsboro Oregon. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Hillsboro Oregon. Show all posts
MLS to PDX: Update...kinda
Just to follow up on yesterday's anguished post, I thought I'd chuck the latest word on Major League Soccer (MLS) expansion to the Portland area. It ran in this morning's edition of The Oregonian.
Some highlights and curiosities:
- Merritt Paulson, the current owner of the USL-1 Portland Timbers (who I'm going to go see tonight!), sounds like he's fairly separate from the relevant transactions. He says he "thinks about it (e.g. MLS expansion to Portland) a lot," but this one line tells me something else:
I'm just saying, note the passive voice.
- The chatter of the "players" involved isn't all that reassuring either. Here's the paragraph on the most high-profile "player":
Having recently visited the site, I think it's going to take quite a bit more than that, especially where parking and access is concerned. If, on the other hand, they try to do this on the cheap, getting in and out of that stadium will friggin' suck. I also have to admit that I'm far from an expert on stadium construction and infrastructure, so we're dealing with a laymen's view here.
Still...
That's where things are today, anyway. About where they were before, but with a rumor tickling our toes.
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Some highlights and curiosities:
- Merritt Paulson, the current owner of the USL-1 Portland Timbers (who I'm going to go see tonight!), sounds like he's fairly separate from the relevant transactions. He says he "thinks about it (e.g. MLS expansion to Portland) a lot," but this one line tells me something else:
"The bottom line is that it's no shock MLS is interested in Portland," said Paulson, who planned to attend the MLS All-Star game in Colorado today. "And I'd certainly be very excited about being a part of it at PGE Park if that makes sense. And I think it would."
I'm just saying, note the passive voice.
- The chatter of the "players" involved isn't all that reassuring either. Here's the paragraph on the most high-profile "player":
"James Keston said this week that upgrading Hillsboro Stadium into a facility suited specifically for soccer "looks far more feasible." A makeover would more than double the 7,000-seat facility, add space for more concessions, restrooms and parking, and replace four softball fields that currently surround the stadium with amateur soccer fields."
Having recently visited the site, I think it's going to take quite a bit more than that, especially where parking and access is concerned. If, on the other hand, they try to do this on the cheap, getting in and out of that stadium will friggin' suck. I also have to admit that I'm far from an expert on stadium construction and infrastructure, so we're dealing with a laymen's view here.
Still...
That's where things are today, anyway. About where they were before, but with a rumor tickling our toes.
(########)
MLS Expansion: I Have Seen Hillsboro Stadium...
....and it's gonna take more work to make that venue fly than I had originally anticipated.
Here's the deal: my daughter attended a breast cancer event with her Girl Scout troop, one that happened to be based at Hillsboro Stadium. That's significant becuase, assuming Kevin McGeehan has it right in his piece on likely candidates for MLS expansion (in which he endorses the Las Vegas bid; for the record, I endorse his endorsement), Hillsboro stadium enters into the equation for many observers:
Which brings us to what expanding that stadium will entail. Hillsboro Stadium is smaller than it looks from the four-lane highway that buzzes by it; the turf will likely need replacement as well. It's surrounded, at this point, by softball/baseball fields - will those be replaced by soccer fields, or will "America's game" hold its place? Tough as those issues sound, they're nothing next to figuring access to the stadium.
Finding the access to the stadium is hard enough, especially from the highway; to get past a Fred Meyer (local grocery chain) suburban complex signs will need to be put up at the very least. Once you find the right road, you find yourself on a stretch of via twisting, narrow one-lane pavement pinched by lava boulders on one side and lines of parked cars on the other. I happened to show up during a softball tournament of some kind, which had people stopping and parallel parking all over the damn place. In other words, given MLS's preference for Saturday games, it's pretty clear that those softball fields and a regular events drawing 15,000-20,000 cannot co-exist.
The set up in the parking lots that currently exist is insane, Those one-lane stretches of pavement (I can't bring myself to call them roads; they're too narrow) extend across the tops of the parking lot, but they go through these weird traffic cluster-fucks that confuse motorists to the extent of creating a sort of free-for-all - e.g. cars head on these extensions going both directions making it really hard to tell which lanes are supposed to go which way. That said, the parking area isn't all that bad and, really, would require some clearing to boost the number of available spaces (though additional construction will remain necessary).
While I'm sure the parking/access equation can be remedied - albeit at a cost in dollars and, essentially, starting over - limitations to the physical space cause additional concerns. I've implied the issues in play: the Fred Meyer shopping complex and the highway completely rules out growth in two directions; existing office parks take out another one, leaving exactly one direction for expansion - and that wouldn't be easy. The softball fields will likely have to go as well - either that, or the events on them scheduled away from potential MLS games.
None of this is to say that settling a Portland team in Hillsboro won't be possible. But the site means this will be more complicated by far than simply expanding the stadium: an overhaul of the infrastrucuture surrounding the stadium, almost completely revamping the parking set up, not to mention doing battle with local interests from Fred Meyer to whomever organizes softball games will be required to make this work. And these are expenses I didn't take into account the first time I posted on this (link below). I'll tell you one thing: unless we run the construction with the brutality of an old Soviet five-year plan - and with several times the efficiency as well - next season is definitely not an option.
And after all that the market that may prove fairly lukewarm in the end.
Here's the deal: my daughter attended a breast cancer event with her Girl Scout troop, one that happened to be based at Hillsboro Stadium. That's significant becuase, assuming Kevin McGeehan has it right in his piece on likely candidates for MLS expansion (in which he endorses the Las Vegas bid; for the record, I endorse his endorsement), Hillsboro stadium enters into the equation for many observers:
"The situation is fluid, and the ultimate decision may hinge on whether the SuperSonics decide to follow through on their threats to leave the Emerald City. At the moment, though, it looks like Portland may have a slight edge in the race due to plans to expand an existing stadium in Hillsboro, a suburb of Portland. If this plan works, it’s conceivable that a club could play in Portland next season."
Which brings us to what expanding that stadium will entail. Hillsboro Stadium is smaller than it looks from the four-lane highway that buzzes by it; the turf will likely need replacement as well. It's surrounded, at this point, by softball/baseball fields - will those be replaced by soccer fields, or will "America's game" hold its place? Tough as those issues sound, they're nothing next to figuring access to the stadium.
Finding the access to the stadium is hard enough, especially from the highway; to get past a Fred Meyer (local grocery chain) suburban complex signs will need to be put up at the very least. Once you find the right road, you find yourself on a stretch of via twisting, narrow one-lane pavement pinched by lava boulders on one side and lines of parked cars on the other. I happened to show up during a softball tournament of some kind, which had people stopping and parallel parking all over the damn place. In other words, given MLS's preference for Saturday games, it's pretty clear that those softball fields and a regular events drawing 15,000-20,000 cannot co-exist.
The set up in the parking lots that currently exist is insane, Those one-lane stretches of pavement (I can't bring myself to call them roads; they're too narrow) extend across the tops of the parking lot, but they go through these weird traffic cluster-fucks that confuse motorists to the extent of creating a sort of free-for-all - e.g. cars head on these extensions going both directions making it really hard to tell which lanes are supposed to go which way. That said, the parking area isn't all that bad and, really, would require some clearing to boost the number of available spaces (though additional construction will remain necessary).
While I'm sure the parking/access equation can be remedied - albeit at a cost in dollars and, essentially, starting over - limitations to the physical space cause additional concerns. I've implied the issues in play: the Fred Meyer shopping complex and the highway completely rules out growth in two directions; existing office parks take out another one, leaving exactly one direction for expansion - and that wouldn't be easy. The softball fields will likely have to go as well - either that, or the events on them scheduled away from potential MLS games.
None of this is to say that settling a Portland team in Hillsboro won't be possible. But the site means this will be more complicated by far than simply expanding the stadium: an overhaul of the infrastrucuture surrounding the stadium, almost completely revamping the parking set up, not to mention doing battle with local interests from Fred Meyer to whomever organizes softball games will be required to make this work. And these are expenses I didn't take into account the first time I posted on this (link below). I'll tell you one thing: unless we run the construction with the brutality of an old Soviet five-year plan - and with several times the efficiency as well - next season is definitely not an option.
And after all that the market that may prove fairly lukewarm in the end.
MLS to PDX: Slice, Dice & Doom
What appears below is more or less an argument as to why any “money man” would be insane to try to establish a Major League Soccer (MLS) team in the Portland, Oregon metro area. The bottom-line of this argument relates more to what the picture looks like heading into the investment; I’m neither pretending nor claiming to know what will happen if the decision to move into the Portland area occurs - though I do have my guess.
I’ll wrap up by saying where I think the present suitor - a real estate developer named James Reston - would do best...and that’s not going to be popular...
To begin with a full disclosure, here’s where I am on the whole question of MLS coming to PDX: I’m for it, but with no strings attached beyond the team being sufficiently successful to sustain itself. I don’t care if they put it in PGE Park, Hillsboro, Gresham, or the left side of my ass; if it works, it works. I am partial to PGE Park and for some selfish reasons - e.g. it’s central, there’s “stuff” around it, including adjacent public transportation options; I like that stuff plenty, but it’s not the controlling issue for me. But I’m not going to ignore a team in the greater Portland area, either. I like the game too much and for its own sake; if I notice the “atmosphere” that means I’m bored; typically, the action on the field gives me enough to yell about. Also, I’m perfectly happy with the status quo; I don’t have to live in an MLS market ‘cause that’s why god made TVs, right?
Part I: Why We're Doomed
Consider the following scenarios as investments and - this is crucial - think of the money and risk as being yours:
Scenario 1: Move into a decent facility smack in the middle of the city with respectable public transportation access, but lousy parking (I anticipate a rejoinder about bikes, but would only say, don’t over-estimate the extent to which your lifestyle decisions and preferences are shared). A secondary problem arises from the fact the facility is already in use by: two club teams, one of which you’d likely supplant and another that plays not only in another league, but another sport; there’s also the nearby, rather large public university, who have ambitions for their football team and, as such, the need for somewhere to play - e.g the same facility. The current contracts for the two club teams run one year past the generally understood window for getting an MLS team (I think, the Beavers/Timbers are there till 2011 and MLS is looking to get to 16 teams by 2010; after that, who knows?), which make negotiations with multiple entities both necessary and complicated - oh, and the city leaders, they don’t give a shit about any of this. You’ll also have to pony up for some kind of bleachers to get around the field - though that can wait - and refurbishing the turf, which, in all honesty, can’t. If you do grass - which the locals, sensibly, want - you’ll have pay for upkeep in a wet, rainy environment.
Scenario 2: There’s a stadium that sits immediately adjacent to a freeway that knots up, oh, two to three times daily. Unlike that highway/freeway (it’s not an official interstate, I suppose), no public transportation comes close to said stadium - and that means parking, which means driving, which, under current arrangements, means congestion. The parking, of course, will be built, but negotiations loom on paying for and providing for general transportation infrastructure to reach said parking. Arrangements could be made to ease congestion with the local transportation agency - perhaps by setting up shuttles from the light-rail that does, in fact, run not so far off - though that’s more negotiation with a partner with different priorities. Making all this more complicated is the fact that a fair chunk of the die-hard support for the current local club team is explicitly hostile to a suburban stadium and for reasons that run from sincere to delusional. Said support turns out in impressive-for-second-tier soccer numbers (and, frankly, that’s it; it’s no Rochester or Montreal) and they provide nearly all the color and noise at the current team’s games; that won’t matter so much as they say they’re not showing up in any suburban venue. Oh, and you’ll have to pay to refurbish the field here as well, not to mention chuck up another set of stands opposite the one that exists. Oh, one more thing: the youth soccer fields that seem part of the league model - you’re on the hook for those as well.
OK: Would you choose #1 or #2? Now, here’s the real question: why would you choose either one?
Expensive and complicated as both scenarios sound, the bigger rub is more fundamental: Portlanders - e.g. the ones who live in the city, work there and value the lifestyle - don’t seem to like professional sports, neither in terms of funding nor as a top choice for recreation, at least not much beyond the numbers that show up to see the USL Division 1 Portland Timbers. Can I prove that? Not really, but, assuming it’s at all accurate, it forms the decisive part of the problem. What follows from here is an attempt to explain why I’m thinking an MLS team in Portland won’t fly. The arguments grow from nearly nine years of residence in the Portland area (sigh...if you must know: 1995-97 and 2000-2005 in Portland proper (inner NE and Overlook neighborhoods); 2005-07 in Hillsboro) and, to some extent, the comments I’m seeing on local blogs and message boards tells me that a combination of factors would scuttle a Portland MLS franchise. On the most fundamental of levels, however, a curious intersection of competing lifestyle choices lays at the root of the situation. Is that wrong? I’ll get into this more below, but...are you fucking kidding me? Since when is supporting your local team a civic obligation?
The tenor of the current debate, which is generally ignored outside soccer circles (see what I mean about the market?), effectively splits a sports-ambivalent population into still smaller chunks. Assume the key investor in this, James Reston, follows the advice most often seen on the Soccer City USA message board and goes for PGE Park. This plan relies on slivers within slivers of the general population to sustain the business side: urban dwellers, and largely liberal ones, who are not only generic sports fans, but soccer fans to boot. If Reston goes this route and centers operations in PGE Park, he’ll lose just about anyone who wants to drive to games (good riddance, you say? You’re an idiot, I say, unless you fit a sensible profile*). A lot goes into this: the local paper tells me families are fleeing Portland; declining school enrollments tell me the same thing. So, where will those fans come from who “grew up with the game” if their parents can’t/won’t drive them? Yeah, there’s public transportation, and, yeah, it’s easier to use park-n-rides to get the family into the city center as opposed to the other way around, but how many families will do that - and often enough to make the numbers tally? Lose the families, you lose a huge chunk of your market.
The flipside of this, and this could be specific to the Portland area, is the apparent reality that, by placing a team in the suburbs, a potential MLS franchise loses 5,000 dedicated fans right off the bat. While the odds are good you’ll retain a some of those fans (desperation will get a few of you), any kind of walk-up crowd will be lost outright (I swear, I’ve seen people at PGE Park exclusively and specifically to take advantage of the Thirsty Thursday promotion - which used to be much better, by the way). Whatever drives this - whether it’s an eco-conscious shunning of the suburban model, or just knee-jerk anti-suburban snobbery (hey, I thought like that till two years ago and feel OK calling it what it is) - the money to fund this thing belongs to the people who will spend it. And, if they don’t want to, fine; watching soccer isn’t a civic obligation - and, if one comes at it from the environmental side, that’s a higher calling...even if the steps one takes me be meaningless against the larger cultural backdrop (I’m just saying...). And, for the record, my environmental conscience isn’t sufficient to keep me from driving cross-town for the game.
The thing is, I see the tensions in play in the Portland area as, essentially, fatal to any potential MLS franchise. I don’t believe the “urban-only” crowd has the numbers to sustain a team - especially given the seeming preference among so many of Portland’s general population for the entire array of outdoor activities available in Portland. That crowd could, on the other hand, scuttle a suburban team by declining to make the entertainment commute. And I can’t see suburbanites pouring into Portland’s PGE Park for 15-25 games per season absent a parking and transportation infrastructure that will let them drive to the games. So, yeah, between this demographic/planning Charybdis and Scylla, I think we’re screwed.
Part II - in which I Think Like a Capitalist
If, on the other hand, I was compelled to invest, I’d go suburban. On the general level, America is still growing in the ‘burbs - and that pertains even to Portland, OR. Even with a good chunk of people relocating to Portland specifically, a big enough slice of Portland’s projected 1 million-plus future residents will fuel robust long-term growth in Washington County as well. And, sure, there’s an ongoing debate as to how well the re-urbanization/density boosting planning model will work here - and that’s certainly part of the appeal for people coming to the area - but, with a lot of that density looking set, again, for the Western suburbs of Portland (e.g. Hillsboro), planting a stadium out that-a-way keeps up with the reality that, in spite of global warming and Al Gore, we are still a car-based culture - (psstt...that drives demand for parking). Add a personal theory about where “mainstream” America wants to live (sorry...it’s the suburbs) and consider for a second what will happen if the MLS did go mainstream: yup, they’d cart the team off to a shiny new, publicly-financed stadium in the ‘burbs after all the families bitched about the lack of parking. Chuck in what I’d assume to be easier marketing to youth soccer teams (hey, can we have your mailing list? Sure!) and the whole thing just seems easier.
Against that, though, name me the segment of the population with the greatest disposable income: isn’t it the 20-35 range, y’know, before the critters come? They tend to favor cities, right? Then again, will the incoming population match the cultural profile of the people currently in Portand - e.g. lukewarm to professional sports? See? I’m back to the ‘burbs...messy stuff.
Before walking away for this subject, I do want to give a shout-out to one vocal sub-population in the local debate: the people who prefer the Timbers as they are. To put it crudely, they’d rather have a “boutique soccer team” that they can see and support on terms they prefer and enjoy. And I respect the hell out of that because it understands that losing the family crowd constitutes a trade-off and accepts it. What I can’t abide is the assumption that a team at PGE Park will somehow be successful because, hey, it worked in Toronto, right? And that’s based on - what? - the precisely nine games of Toronto’s existence and wishing away differences in the public life of both cities? The best one can say is what looks to be working for Toronto might work Portland....and I doubt that.
(NOTE: I thought I had read a post somewhere that did a really phrased the above position well; can't find it now...starting to wonder if I imagined it.)
Anyway, that’s my mental project for the past couple days all wrapped up. I spent a stupid amount of time trying to find useful population projections for Multnoman (Portland) and Washington (Hillsboro) county, but instead labored through a series of articles by people for and against Portland’s “smart growth” policy...and the quality of that work, as judged by my layman’s eye, varied wildly. If anyone has access to population projections - good ones, dammit - feel free to pass ‘em on; all this does have me curious. The thing is, I know what’s planned for the region - I read page after page of that vague, "build-it-they-will-come" pap and can tell you all about who participated and what we'd all really, really like to see happen...what I don’t know is what will happen when that planning meets stubborn, irrational human beings....God bless ‘em....
But, bottom line, I do think Reston would have to be crazy to invest in Portland. That said, I hope he stays off his meds long enough for a live test.
I’ll wrap up by saying where I think the present suitor - a real estate developer named James Reston - would do best...and that’s not going to be popular...
To begin with a full disclosure, here’s where I am on the whole question of MLS coming to PDX: I’m for it, but with no strings attached beyond the team being sufficiently successful to sustain itself. I don’t care if they put it in PGE Park, Hillsboro, Gresham, or the left side of my ass; if it works, it works. I am partial to PGE Park and for some selfish reasons - e.g. it’s central, there’s “stuff” around it, including adjacent public transportation options; I like that stuff plenty, but it’s not the controlling issue for me. But I’m not going to ignore a team in the greater Portland area, either. I like the game too much and for its own sake; if I notice the “atmosphere” that means I’m bored; typically, the action on the field gives me enough to yell about. Also, I’m perfectly happy with the status quo; I don’t have to live in an MLS market ‘cause that’s why god made TVs, right?
Part I: Why We're Doomed
Consider the following scenarios as investments and - this is crucial - think of the money and risk as being yours:
Scenario 1: Move into a decent facility smack in the middle of the city with respectable public transportation access, but lousy parking (I anticipate a rejoinder about bikes, but would only say, don’t over-estimate the extent to which your lifestyle decisions and preferences are shared). A secondary problem arises from the fact the facility is already in use by: two club teams, one of which you’d likely supplant and another that plays not only in another league, but another sport; there’s also the nearby, rather large public university, who have ambitions for their football team and, as such, the need for somewhere to play - e.g the same facility. The current contracts for the two club teams run one year past the generally understood window for getting an MLS team (I think, the Beavers/Timbers are there till 2011 and MLS is looking to get to 16 teams by 2010; after that, who knows?), which make negotiations with multiple entities both necessary and complicated - oh, and the city leaders, they don’t give a shit about any of this. You’ll also have to pony up for some kind of bleachers to get around the field - though that can wait - and refurbishing the turf, which, in all honesty, can’t. If you do grass - which the locals, sensibly, want - you’ll have pay for upkeep in a wet, rainy environment.
Scenario 2: There’s a stadium that sits immediately adjacent to a freeway that knots up, oh, two to three times daily. Unlike that highway/freeway (it’s not an official interstate, I suppose), no public transportation comes close to said stadium - and that means parking, which means driving, which, under current arrangements, means congestion. The parking, of course, will be built, but negotiations loom on paying for and providing for general transportation infrastructure to reach said parking. Arrangements could be made to ease congestion with the local transportation agency - perhaps by setting up shuttles from the light-rail that does, in fact, run not so far off - though that’s more negotiation with a partner with different priorities. Making all this more complicated is the fact that a fair chunk of the die-hard support for the current local club team is explicitly hostile to a suburban stadium and for reasons that run from sincere to delusional. Said support turns out in impressive-for-second-tier soccer numbers (and, frankly, that’s it; it’s no Rochester or Montreal) and they provide nearly all the color and noise at the current team’s games; that won’t matter so much as they say they’re not showing up in any suburban venue. Oh, and you’ll have to pay to refurbish the field here as well, not to mention chuck up another set of stands opposite the one that exists. Oh, one more thing: the youth soccer fields that seem part of the league model - you’re on the hook for those as well.
OK: Would you choose #1 or #2? Now, here’s the real question: why would you choose either one?
Expensive and complicated as both scenarios sound, the bigger rub is more fundamental: Portlanders - e.g. the ones who live in the city, work there and value the lifestyle - don’t seem to like professional sports, neither in terms of funding nor as a top choice for recreation, at least not much beyond the numbers that show up to see the USL Division 1 Portland Timbers. Can I prove that? Not really, but, assuming it’s at all accurate, it forms the decisive part of the problem. What follows from here is an attempt to explain why I’m thinking an MLS team in Portland won’t fly. The arguments grow from nearly nine years of residence in the Portland area (sigh...if you must know: 1995-97 and 2000-2005 in Portland proper (inner NE and Overlook neighborhoods); 2005-07 in Hillsboro) and, to some extent, the comments I’m seeing on local blogs and message boards tells me that a combination of factors would scuttle a Portland MLS franchise. On the most fundamental of levels, however, a curious intersection of competing lifestyle choices lays at the root of the situation. Is that wrong? I’ll get into this more below, but...are you fucking kidding me? Since when is supporting your local team a civic obligation?
The tenor of the current debate, which is generally ignored outside soccer circles (see what I mean about the market?), effectively splits a sports-ambivalent population into still smaller chunks. Assume the key investor in this, James Reston, follows the advice most often seen on the Soccer City USA message board and goes for PGE Park. This plan relies on slivers within slivers of the general population to sustain the business side: urban dwellers, and largely liberal ones, who are not only generic sports fans, but soccer fans to boot. If Reston goes this route and centers operations in PGE Park, he’ll lose just about anyone who wants to drive to games (good riddance, you say? You’re an idiot, I say, unless you fit a sensible profile*). A lot goes into this: the local paper tells me families are fleeing Portland; declining school enrollments tell me the same thing. So, where will those fans come from who “grew up with the game” if their parents can’t/won’t drive them? Yeah, there’s public transportation, and, yeah, it’s easier to use park-n-rides to get the family into the city center as opposed to the other way around, but how many families will do that - and often enough to make the numbers tally? Lose the families, you lose a huge chunk of your market.
The flipside of this, and this could be specific to the Portland area, is the apparent reality that, by placing a team in the suburbs, a potential MLS franchise loses 5,000 dedicated fans right off the bat. While the odds are good you’ll retain a some of those fans (desperation will get a few of you), any kind of walk-up crowd will be lost outright (I swear, I’ve seen people at PGE Park exclusively and specifically to take advantage of the Thirsty Thursday promotion - which used to be much better, by the way). Whatever drives this - whether it’s an eco-conscious shunning of the suburban model, or just knee-jerk anti-suburban snobbery (hey, I thought like that till two years ago and feel OK calling it what it is) - the money to fund this thing belongs to the people who will spend it. And, if they don’t want to, fine; watching soccer isn’t a civic obligation - and, if one comes at it from the environmental side, that’s a higher calling...even if the steps one takes me be meaningless against the larger cultural backdrop (I’m just saying...). And, for the record, my environmental conscience isn’t sufficient to keep me from driving cross-town for the game.
The thing is, I see the tensions in play in the Portland area as, essentially, fatal to any potential MLS franchise. I don’t believe the “urban-only” crowd has the numbers to sustain a team - especially given the seeming preference among so many of Portland’s general population for the entire array of outdoor activities available in Portland. That crowd could, on the other hand, scuttle a suburban team by declining to make the entertainment commute. And I can’t see suburbanites pouring into Portland’s PGE Park for 15-25 games per season absent a parking and transportation infrastructure that will let them drive to the games. So, yeah, between this demographic/planning Charybdis and Scylla, I think we’re screwed.
Part II - in which I Think Like a Capitalist
If, on the other hand, I was compelled to invest, I’d go suburban. On the general level, America is still growing in the ‘burbs - and that pertains even to Portland, OR. Even with a good chunk of people relocating to Portland specifically, a big enough slice of Portland’s projected 1 million-plus future residents will fuel robust long-term growth in Washington County as well. And, sure, there’s an ongoing debate as to how well the re-urbanization/density boosting planning model will work here - and that’s certainly part of the appeal for people coming to the area - but, with a lot of that density looking set, again, for the Western suburbs of Portland (e.g. Hillsboro), planting a stadium out that-a-way keeps up with the reality that, in spite of global warming and Al Gore, we are still a car-based culture - (psstt...that drives demand for parking). Add a personal theory about where “mainstream” America wants to live (sorry...it’s the suburbs) and consider for a second what will happen if the MLS did go mainstream: yup, they’d cart the team off to a shiny new, publicly-financed stadium in the ‘burbs after all the families bitched about the lack of parking. Chuck in what I’d assume to be easier marketing to youth soccer teams (hey, can we have your mailing list? Sure!) and the whole thing just seems easier.
Against that, though, name me the segment of the population with the greatest disposable income: isn’t it the 20-35 range, y’know, before the critters come? They tend to favor cities, right? Then again, will the incoming population match the cultural profile of the people currently in Portand - e.g. lukewarm to professional sports? See? I’m back to the ‘burbs...messy stuff.
Before walking away for this subject, I do want to give a shout-out to one vocal sub-population in the local debate: the people who prefer the Timbers as they are. To put it crudely, they’d rather have a “boutique soccer team” that they can see and support on terms they prefer and enjoy. And I respect the hell out of that because it understands that losing the family crowd constitutes a trade-off and accepts it. What I can’t abide is the assumption that a team at PGE Park will somehow be successful because, hey, it worked in Toronto, right? And that’s based on - what? - the precisely nine games of Toronto’s existence and wishing away differences in the public life of both cities? The best one can say is what looks to be working for Toronto might work Portland....and I doubt that.
(NOTE: I thought I had read a post somewhere that did a really phrased the above position well; can't find it now...starting to wonder if I imagined it.)
Anyway, that’s my mental project for the past couple days all wrapped up. I spent a stupid amount of time trying to find useful population projections for Multnoman (Portland) and Washington (Hillsboro) county, but instead labored through a series of articles by people for and against Portland’s “smart growth” policy...and the quality of that work, as judged by my layman’s eye, varied wildly. If anyone has access to population projections - good ones, dammit - feel free to pass ‘em on; all this does have me curious. The thing is, I know what’s planned for the region - I read page after page of that vague, "build-it-they-will-come" pap and can tell you all about who participated and what we'd all really, really like to see happen...what I don’t know is what will happen when that planning meets stubborn, irrational human beings....God bless ‘em....
But, bottom line, I do think Reston would have to be crazy to invest in Portland. That said, I hope he stays off his meds long enough for a live test.
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