Showing posts with label Week 6. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Week 6. Show all posts

Week 6 Power-Rankings Round-Up (check my math)

As I was about to explain in long-hand form the collection of 9+ power rankings I pulled together to study, it occurred to me that a mathematical method of some sort could make sense of it all more efficiently. It turns out all those math teachers who swore I'd use what they taught me were right...though it's also likely they didn't entertain the possibility I would misapply the tools they provided.

Call that my caveat for this post: I'm not totally sure that what I've done is mathematically valid, but it seems good enough - and that's why I'm posting.

By way of source material, I found power rankings posted on nine different sites - the "+" that appears above came about because, due to the format - which splits Eastern and Western Conferences - I can't use the rankings from Who Ate All the Cupcakes; but I like the author's stuff well enough to give him a shout-out regardless.

The other nine, however, appear below. After listing them, I'll redo the power rankings by placing all 13 MLS teams in the order of the average ranking they received across all nine outlets/blogs. Here's a list of the source material:

It's a Simple Game (mine obviously - LINK)
Sports Illustrated (Ryan Hunt) LINK
WVHooligan LINK
Soccer by Ives LINK
Sideline Views (Luis Bueno) LINK
Orlando Sentinel LINK (bonus for great format)
My Soccer Blog LINK
MLS Underground LINK
Finally, ESPN, the grand-daddy of them all: LINK

And now, here's how MLS's 13 teams stack up when you average the scores awarded to each of the teams by all nine outlets; for poops and giggles, I listed the high and low figure for each MLS club.

1. New England Revolution: 1.0 (Yep, they were the universal #1)
2. Red Bull New York: 2.7 (best, 2; worst, 4)
3. Kansas City Wizards: 3.9 (best, 2; worst, 6 - big spread on them)
4. Colorado Rapids: 3.9 (best, 2; worst, 7 - still bigger spread)
5. Houston Dynamo: 4.7 (best, 2; worst, 7 - ditto)
6. FC Dallas: 5.3 (best, 4; worst, 7 - 5 heavy; I gave the 7)
7. Chicago Fire: 7.6 (best, 6; worst, 10 - 7 heavy; I gave the 10)
8. Los Angeles Galaxy: 8.2 (best, 5; worst, 10 - pretty random; I gave the 5)
9. DC United: 9.7 (best, 8; worst, 11 - small range, wide variety)
10. Columbus Crew: 10.6 (best, 6; worst, 11)
11. Chivas USA: 10.8 (best, 8; worst, 13 - 10, 11 heavy)
12. Toronto FC: 11.9 (best, 10; worst, 13 - 12, 13 heavy)
13. Real Salt Lake: 12.6 (best, 12; worst, 13 - pretty conclusive)

So, there you have it. That may or may not give a handy snapshot of the conventional wisdom. I suspect it does, even if the ranges on some teams is a worry.

Talk at y'all tomorrow.

(#########)

Week 6: Power Rankings + Standings

I won’t lie: my week has been so thoroughly fucked up it makes a $20 whore look positively chaste (sorry, horrible analogy). But I’m soldiering on with power rankings and, later, I’ll compare those with everyone else’s to give an approximation of how observers see teams stacking up. I won’t even peek at those, however, till after I’ve written and posted what appears below.

As usual, last week’s ranking appears in parentheses immediately after this week’s ranking. So’s as to not misrepresent my judgment as entirely first-hand, the following key shows the distance of my observations: “@” means I watched a given team’s most recent performance in its entirety; “$” means I caught it through Quick Kicks, which provides extended highlights; “&” means I watched only the rump highlights available through MLSnet.com.

Here goes...and after the rankings, you’ll find a current listing of the standings for the permanent record.

1. (2) New England Revolution (@)
I’ll have something up elsewhere stating my belief that New England showed itself to be the first “good” team in the 2007 season. The logic here is pretty simple: they’re the only team doing fairly well on both sides of the ball and taking care of business both home and away. The question is whether they can keep it up - I mean, how often to forwards have the rebound fall perfectly?

2. (3) Houston Dynamo (idle)
As much as inching an idle team up the table seems a little silly, the other teams did it to themselves. I’m not sold on this bunch yet; having only one rock-star offensive game makes this a highly precarious #2 ranking.

3. (1) Red Bull New York (&)
It’s not losing to the Rapids so much as it’s, y’know, everything: the draw to RSL, the Open Cup thing, a key player (Claudio Reyna) who seems too fragile to last, etc. Clint Mathis says they’re slipping; the question is can they turn it around?

4. (6) Colorado Rapids (& + &)
During their two-game Week 6, Colorado showed two things: a kind of resilience and proof that they have not grown out of their penchant for erratic play. They do have the weapons, though, even if Dan Gargan isn’t one of them.

5. (5) Los Angeles Galaxy (@)
Call me crazy - and I’m sure Frank Yallop would - but I liked a lot of what I saw out of these guys against New England. I’d go so far as to say they’d beat - let’s do a quick count - seven, even eight teams in this league playing like that. Cannon is still a force and signs of life from Martino mean plenty for this group.

6. (4) Kansas City Wizards ($)
This isn’t bad as it looks. To begin, I still think this is a playoff team. And from the sounds of it, they outplayed Dallas. But they DID lose.

7. (8) FC Dallas ($)
Based on what I read and saw, Dario Sala hauled their butts through this one - then again, a ‘keeper like that counts for something. Nice to see Cooper score again, while Abe Thompson’s performance shows they have a little depth. Also noted: even the Kansas City paper had nice things to say about their defense. They do ride their luck a little, but they’re also looking good enough...to do what? Well...

8. (10) Columbus Crew (@)
The Crew may owe me the two hours of my life I spent watching this, but there’s no denying this team can defend. But - damn! - do they have a toothless attack, even with the new editions. Still, one-half competent puts them ahead of the teams below.

9. (9) DC United (idle)
Seems appropriate to let their ranking idle as they did. They looked better in Week 5, but have to show a bit more in coming games to get back into the Land of Playoff Contention.

10. (7) Chicago Fire (@)
The Fire gets hit with the Big Drop this week, not because they were Toronto’s first victims, but in the way they’ve lost over the past two weekends. Take away Chris Rolfe and they go from a one-man to a no-man offense. That’s bad enough, but it’s nothing next to the ever-fraying defensive displays; the way this team positively WILTS against counter-attacks renders them almost incapable of chasing a game.

11. (13) Toronto FC (@)
Well, that was fun. I think I wrote this before, but I could have sworn these teams swapped jerseys at the half. Still, I’ll note as everyone did the nice atmosphere on the day and all that. We’ll see tonight (well, and in the future) whether or not Toronto has figured out playing in MLS.

12. (12) Real Salt Lake (&)
As much as I’m hearing decent things about the changes introduced by new coach Jason Kreis (two forwards?? - gasp), these guys still don’t have a W to call their own. Till they get one....well, maybe I’m being more generous to them than I am to the guys below. Still, one doesn’t need the -8 goal differential to know TFC remains a struggling team.

13. (11) Chivas USA (@)
Is it Preki’s fault? Hell, I dunno. What I do know is, the (hungover, Sunday park club) mistakes that defense made would have been ruthlessly punished by any team other than Houston. And with their attack essentially drying up, these guys don’t have much going for them.

Moving on to the standings (official ones here):

Eastern Conference:
1. New England Revs: 14 pts. (4-1-2: 14 GF, 7 GA, +7; home, 2-0-0; away, 2-1-2)
2. Kansas City Wiz: 12 pts. (4-2-0: 11 GF, 6 GA, +5; home, 2-1-0; away, 2-1-0)
3. Red Bull New York: 11 pts. (3-1-2: 8 GF, 4 GA, +4; home, 2-1-0; away, 1-0-2)
4. Chicago Fire: 10 pts. (3-2-1: 7 GF, 8 GA, -1; home, 2-0-0; away, 1-1-1)
5. Columbus Crew: 7 pts. (1-1-4: 4 GF, 4 GA, 0; home, 1-0-3; away, 0-1-1)
6. DC United: 4 pts. (1-3-1: 6 GF, 9 GA, -3; home, 1-1-1; away, 0-2-0)
7. Toronto FC: 0 pts. (1-4-0: 3 GF, 11 GA, -8; home, 1-1-0; away, 0-3-0)

Western Conference
1. Colorado Rapids: 11 pts. (3-2-2: 9 GF, 9 GA, 0; home 1-1-2; away, 2-1-0)
2. FC Dallas: 10 pts. (3-3-1: 9 GF, 10 GA, -1; home, 1-2-0; away, 1-1-1)
3. Chivas USA: 7 pts. (2-3-1: 9 GF, 7 GA; +2; home, 2-0-0; away, 0-3-1)
4. Houston Dynamo: 7 pts. (2-2-1: 4 GF, 3 GA, +1; home, 1-1-1; away, 1-1-0)
5. Los Angeles Galaxy: 4 pts. (1-2-1: 6 GF, 6 GA, 0; home, 1-2-0; away, 0-0-1)
6. Real Salt Lake: 3 pts. (0-3-3: 6 GF, 12 GA, -6; home, 0-1-3; away, 0-1-0)

Week 6: Games Seen and Unseen

I had grand plans about how I’d lay out this review of the past weekend’s super-duper action. Reports and reviews were browsed and bookmarked, commentary and quotes noted.

And then I ran out of time. So here for your (possible) edification and amusement, are some random, unsupported thoughts on Major League Soccer’s Week 6...except for that midweek freak of a game between...ah, I don’t even care. (Settle down with the scheduling, you MLS pogues.) I’ll start with stray thoughts on the two games I didn’t see.

Tomorrow, maybe the next day, I’ll work out that whole power-ranking thing to in the hopes of bringing some kind of coherence to these ramblings.

Kansas City Wizards 1 - 2 FC Dallas
I won’t lie: this result had me practicing my best whoops and hollers for use of mocking people who saw the Wizards as a bona fide contender; yeah, put me in the “but look at who they’ve played column.” But one article, citing as it did the breakdown on shots, etc. - not to mention the now-high probability that Juan Carlos Toja used his hand to control the ball just before scoring - has me thinking it’s wise to let opinions on the Wizards steep for another week or two. And, when you get right to it, the same applies to FC Dallas - though it’s worth noting that Dario Sala had a hell of a game.

I see a lot of Kansas City Wizards labels on my sitemeter, so here’s a personal note to them: I have nothing against your team; my life is simply easier when I don’t have to think about them.*

Red Bull New York 0 - 1 Colorado Rapids
Caught this one (as well as the one above) through highlights only - and not the good ones (Quick Kicks), mind you, but the crappy, truncated little buggers. What can I say? Colorado looks like they’re still unpredictable as a major loon off his/her meds. The more significant thing is what this does to Red Bull’s stellar, early-season rep.

Nice goal by Nico Hernandez, who, for some crazy reason, I really like.

Moving now to the games I did see...

Toronto FC 3 - 1 Chicago Fire
In no particular order...

- Holy crabcakes! Three goals? If the Columbus Crew hadn’t scored, TFC would have hauled them down on the goal count in just one game. Yikes. Speaking of....

- What the hell is wrong with Chicago? Until last week, every mention of the Fire usually included some phrase on their “solidity.” But for the second week straight, these cats got roasted when chasing the game. The first half was what it was, but the second looked a whole hell of a lot like the defensive collapse against the New England Revolution the week before. Toronto scored an appropriately scrappy first, but the second two? Kevin Goldthwaite and Maurice Edu (who played his balls off) could have held a friggin’ seminar in the space they had in the Chicago area.

- Seriously, Chicago’s defense was so bad the thought that the teams had switched uniforms at the half entered my mind.

- I mentioned the status of Maurice Edu’s balls, but would give Kevin Goldthwaite (of all people) man of the match. Ronnie O’Brien deserves honorable mention.

- The shouting match between Matt Pickens and Danny Dichio looked pretty intense - and small wonder with talk of biting (weird).

- Chicago...I dunno. Without “reviewing the tape” - and for both games - I’m not sure I can explain why they’re open to the counter like 7-11 is to stoners. My first guess is an aging midfield. But their defenders are dying under those even-number break-aways.

Columbus Crew 1 - 1 Chivas USA
(* Now, if I could stop thinking about this team...that'd be a relief)

I covered this for my day job - and have the psychic scars to show for it. Why, oh, why did I volunteer to follow the Crew? (No, I remember; I’m “from Ohio and thought they’d be interesting.” HA!). I think I’ve got enough over there to cover here, but want to add one delicious tease: as tentative/ineffectual Eddie Gaven has looked this season, was it just me or did Chivas look more comfortable AFTER he left the game? Sure, he mustered only the one shot - straight at Brad Guzan, but a hard shot all the same - but the paths to the goal dried up when he left just after the 60th minute till that last-minute flurry at the end of the game. Could this be a case of doing good while seeming bad?

Los Angeles Galaxy 2 - 3 New England Revolution
I think the LA Times put it best when they said that anyone who caught this game got their money’s worth. For me, this was the best game of the season and, heart-broken as LA fans and players might be (and pissed off to the point of making trades as their coach may be), LA nearly got a point from a game in which they were fairly roundly outplayed. I may be alone in this, but I think that ain't bad. They can turn this around (then again, I thought the same last year...)

Other notes...

- I intend to elaborate on this elsewhere, but I think New England finally showed as the First Good Team of 2007. I’ll give The DCenters their point - that this doesn’t quite make them the team to beat - and I know they’ll have off games, but they look like the real deal.

- Turning to LA, you know who looked great last night? Kyle Martino. That’s so nuts to me I wouldn’t have believed it if I didn’t see the game myself. But that was a wonderfully taken goal and he was everywhere else besides. LA’s man-of-the-match, hands down.

- Cannon worked very hard and has every right to be pissed at the guys in front of him.

With those awards handed out, I can now indulge my urge to praise the Revs - at length.

- Adam Cristman: It wasn’t so much the goal as it was all the great work that preceded it - in this game and the game against Chicago. If he’s not the strongest player on the team this side of Shalrie Joseph, he’s close. That man wants this career like nobody’s business. And, so far, he’s earning it.

- Steve Ralston: I already posted on him, if only indirectly. He’s doing so friggin’ much for this team.

- Khano Smith: He’s made me a believer, at least in his ability to make one player’s life hell. Just ask Chris Albright, who had to cope with his tireless running.

- Michael Parkhurst: Best...damn...defender in MLS. I think I’m serious about this....wait...yeah, I am. How many pockets did this kid pick last night? How many times did he shield the ball from much, much bigger players? He’s like butter back there.

- Matt Reis: He succeeds when Parkhurst fails; just a hell of a one-two.

- Taylor Twellman: If I need to tell you, I’m guessing you’re not watching. Then again, there’s the whole thing about the gods smiling: how many times does the ball bounce off the crossbar straight back at the same player? When you’re hot you’re lucky (or is it “When you’re lucky, you’re hot”?)

- Shalrie Joseph: Like a gigantic blue-and-black, dreadlocked blur in the middle of the field; he’s more of an entity than a man, a spot on the field that reads “There be monsters here.” What I’m getting at is I don’t even notice the guy any more; I just see attacks breaking down in the center of the field just above the Revs’ defensive third.

- James Riley: I’m still not comfortable with Riley.

Week 6 Picks: 12-22* & Beyond!

(* My current record with predictions...boo-yah!)

Week 6 Picks: 12-22 and Beyond!

With my too-formal previews already up on Write On Sports (I'm working on it) and at least one pick (the Open Cup game) already coming good - in the main, anyway - over on the Real Salt Lake Offside’s predictions league, it’s time to lay down my marker for this space. For the record, though, I’m totally serious about LA v. Revs being the match of the week; I also like Red Bull v. Rapids and would really, really like to get excited about Chivas @ the Crew, but...well, you know...

Colorado Rapids v. Real Salt Lake
Even with the Rapids eating all the dookie Houston could dish out last weekend, and even with RSL’s stirring comeback against Red Bull...I can’t see anything but a RAPIDS WIN. It’d be better, for the rivalry if nothing else, if RSL wins, but...again, you know...

Toronto FC v. Chicago Fire
I not only expect a FIRE WIN, but bet a pint of warm domestic beer that Toronto will still not score; the Fire is too tough on defense. I will, however, leave open an escape hatch: I like TFC’s chances of scoring better if Ronnie O’Brien plays. Winning, not so much, but scoring, yes. The bet stands regardless.

Columbus Crew v. Chivas USA
Two weeks ago, this would have looked like something to see: now, with the Crew apparently bewildered at the concept of scoring and the Chivas defense looking patchy, this one winds up being a question of how each team’s strengths and weaknesses meet the other’s. For instance, does the good Chivas defense get the better of a good Crew defense; or will it be the feeble Crew offense sneaking through a feeble Chivas defense? I called a draw in the predictions league, but think the Chivas defense is just what the Crew ordered: CREW WINS - probably ugly...and Ezra scores again.

Kansas City Wizards v. FC Dallas
How I wish Dallas was playing better; I’m dying to know what KC really has this year. But between their recent layoff and their form heading into the same, the unknowns have me wondering whether the Wizards will play the entire season as kind of a mystery team. The draw I called in the predictions league still feels OK....I guess. DRAW - with goals (I think).

LA Galaxy v. New England Revolution
Here we have the Rama-Lama-Ding-Dong-Dust-Up of the Week, the Bona Fides Stakes, if you will. Both teams want to assume the Alpha Aura for purposes of intimidation down the line. Calling this for New England amounted to an act of faith and optimism conjured perhaps by Ryan Hunt calling the Revs the surprise team of the season thus far. Though I’m getting cold feet, the words of my S.A.T. coach* keep returning: stick with your first answer. OK, then. REVS WIN - and their moxie gets moxier.

(* Fictitious character: In truth, a raid on the folks’ liquor cabinet the night before my first crack at the test rendered me incapable of sitting. No coach taught me that one.)

Red Bull New York v. Colorado Rapids
Assuming the Rapids make good on my call above (I’m waiting for them to bone it, just to spite me), they could come to Sunday’s game with a misguided swagger; but Red Bull’s late collapse against RSL should have them looking to make amends. As such, NEW YORK WINS - though not by much...unless that Angel kid lives up to the hype.