Showing posts with label Power rankings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Power rankings. Show all posts

MLS Week 15: Collective Rankings/Commentary

The Semi-Detached Pundit Collective (SDPC) shrank a little in Week 15: Sports Illustrated’s Ryan Hunt’s rankings weren’t up at the time of calculation and, thus, are not included. On Soccer hasn’t posted Scariness ratings for Week 15 either, so I’ll have to axe those this week. This isn’t a crisis, of course: a fella has a life before a blog and the other probably has deadlines or was roped into reporting on the MLS Fiesta del Horseshit (All-Star Game...that’s my shorthand).

UPDATE: Ryan Hunt's ratings are up, along with some chatter and commentary from the MLS Commish Don Garber's State of League address, some midseason honors for players (Adam Cristman, best rookie (yay.); but the "biggest surprise" is my favorite: Ned Grabavoy). It's a good read.

On the plus side of the ledger, The DCenters posted their Freezer and Who Ate All the Cupcakes got back to the by-conference rankings this week. All these combine to make us smarter...or collectively dumber. But I’m not about to do the math on that. And, as always, I’ll wrap this up with the little wrinkles in the numbers that interest me.

Here are the sources for this week’s SPDC rankings. I always forget to say this, but I'd encourage people to read the commentary; it tells you a lot about the author:

It’s a Simple Game
Sideline Views (Luis Bueno)
Sideline Views (Andrea Canales)
WVHooligan
My Soccer Blog
MLS Underground
ESPN
Fox Soccer Channel

Now, on to the numbers:

1. Houston Dynamo, 1.0 (last week: 1st - 1.0)
2. FC Dallas, 2.6 (3rd - 3.3)
3. New England Revolution, 3.1 (4th - 4.0)
4. DC United, 4.0 (2nd - 2.8)
5. Kansas City Wizards, 5.4 (6th - 6.6)
6. Chivas USA, 5.9 (8th - 7.4)
7. Red Bull New York, 7.1 (5th - 4.7)
8. Columbus Crew, 7.4 (7th - 6.9)
9. Toronto FC, 8.5 (9th - 9.2)
10. Los Angeles Galaxy, 10.0 (10th - 10.0)
11. Colorado Rapids, 11.0 (11th - 10.8)
12. Chicago Fire, 12.1 (12th - 11.8)
13. Real Salt Lake, 12.9 (13th - 13.0)

- Top and bottom stay the same - the Dynamo is still the undisputed #1, while Real Salt Lake is a nearly unanimous #13. In spite of a little internal shuffling, it strikes me as fair to judge the Top 4 static. Put in other terms, how strongly will anyone argue that Dallas is better than New England, or New England better than DC? Seems pretty academic to me.

- Within that Top 4, however, DC got hit pretty hard for that psychological loss to FC Dallas; New England also got a nice little hiccup from their win over Red Bull.

- The most significant shifting - both in terms of ranking and average score - comes with #’s 5-7, with the biggest swing hitting Red Bull; and rightly so.

- In fact, it’s only the size of the drop and the fact that the collective seems to view Columbus as breathing down their necks that makes Red Bull’s ranking add up. All I’m saying is the Bulls look pretty bad right now and I’m not seeing how they’re going to improve.

- I don’t get KC’s rise in the standings. This week’s accomplishment: creating and spurning many, many chances, much like in past weeks, and edging what is almost universally judged the worst team in MLS. (Or, as Luis Bueno rather wonderfully phrased it, “Disturbingly awful side.”) That merits a bump? (Wait...did I inch them up as well?)

- Chivas' climb seems a bit weird to me, too.

- The bottom four looks to be solidifying - bad news for the teams down that-a-way.

- Oh, if you’re looking for the guy who “improved” Real Salt Lake, that’d be me. Between the Beckerman trade and the fact the Chicago Fire is statistically worse than RSL (more goals allowed, worse differential - and in fewer games), flipping those teams seemed justified.

- Let’s here it for the so-called “perfect teams,” those whose collective rankings speak to a kind of unanimity on where they stand: the Dynamo at 1st; DC United at 4th; the Galaxy at 10th; the Rapids at 11th. Congrats, guys. You’ve found your niche!

- Turning to the pundits’ performances, WVHooligan’s rankings perfectly matched the collective mind for the second week running. That’s getting creepy.

- With that stellar repeat performance acknowledged, let’s look at the various “outlier” calls from the rest of us:

It’s a Simple Game: After the bold RSL call, there’s also my Red Bull hate.
My Soccer Blog: Hates KC; loves Red Bull and TFC.
Luis Bueno: He rates Chivas over both the Revs and DC.
Andrea Canales: Shares Bueno’s thing about DC; must be a Cali thing.

Week 15 Power Rankings & Standings

Feels like I haven’t done one of these in ages. As it turns out, though, I just tweaked the format a bit last week. No matter. Back to the old schtick this week: last week’s ranking appears in parentheses immediately after this week’s ranking. So as to not misrepresent my judgment as entirely first-hand, here’s a key for my viewing: “@” means I watched a given team’s most recent performance in its entirety; “$” means I caught it through Quick Kicks, which provides extended highlights; “%” means I watched only the rump highlights available through MLSnet.com.

If you pay attention to the symbols, you may notice that I didn’t watch all that closely this week. So, take what comes below with however much salt you think you need.

1. (1) Houston Dynamo (1/2 of @ + nada)
Sure, they were stymied at home by Toronto, but that’s looking like Houston’s version of an off-game. The only question - it is was posed by Shep Messing, so, y’know, there’s the source to consider - is whether this team has peaked too early. Personally, I doubt it.

2. (2) New England Revolution (@)
I’m officially waiting for this team - my team, for Crissakes! - to start losing, so they can end the Steve Nicol Era. SO hard to watch: ugly function, zero flair. The wins are nice, but...wake me up when it’s over. Nice goal by Dorman, however, and the win over Red Bull was as important as it was dull.

3. (4) FC Dallas (@)
Damn these guys. They have me believing they’ve grown out of their crippling anxieties about success. That rally was about as fun as anything I’ve seen this year and, between Juan Toja, Arturo Alvarez, Dario “Lurch” Sala, and that cardiac-watch defense, they’re fun to watch. Can I adopt this team? Please?

4. (3) DC United (@)
By the end of the first half against FC Dallas - when they were finishing counters as if they were lay-ups - I had lifted the Black-and-Red to 2nd in the rankings in my head. Thing was, Dallas always looked in the game; they had the better of it even. And that’s the rub: the more exposed DC’s back-line became, the more the whole team suddenly looked weak and uncertain. They're better than the bunch below, however.

5. (5) Kansas City Wizards (%)
Nice finish by Johnson, and nice edge in shots on goal, but that counts as the least inspiring win of the season (wait; withdrawn; there’s New England’s to consider). That was RSL, guys.

6. (7) Columbus Crew (nada)
The reports on this game led me to give the Crew the benefit of the doubt. This sounded like a fluky loss to MLS’s best home team (best on paper, anyway). This weekend’s game against Toronto looms large, though.

7. (6) Chivas USA (nada)
They have a formula - win at home - and that’s working OK for them, but it won’t secure them home-field advantage in the post-season. Based on the formula, that's soemthing they'll require to make much noise. And relying on an own goal to top a team like the Crew doesn’t paint a solid picture.

8. (10) Toronto FC (nada)
If this isn’t the highest I’ve rated Toronto, it’s close. But this team has something lacking in those that follow: shit-kicking moxie. They fight. And last weekend’s draw at Houston suggests they may be savvy as well.

9. (8) Red Bull New York (@)
I know, I know: no one else rates Red Bull this low. And we all know about the defense. What I want to know is where these cats will find offense: Claudio Reyna, who is aging before my eyes? The doddering duo of Dave Van Den Bergh and Markus Schopp? (Wait, the latter is on the bench again, right?). They’ll probably right the ship, but, after enduring their game against New England, I can’t see how.

10. (9) Los Angeles Galaxy (idle)
The match report on the Galaxy’s loss to Tigres UNAL tells you everything you need to know. It’s bad. Writing as one of the (former) majority who expected LA to improve in the second half, suddenly I’m wondering about that.

11. (11) Colorado Rapids (idle)
Fire Fernando Clavijo, you dickheads. Not only does the team eat shit often as they play, but I’m hearing chatter to suggest Clavijo does a passable Dick Nixon. Look, you front office types, if you need someone to shit on your brand new stadium, hell, I’ll do it. Seeing as you dumped money into that thing, you shouldn’t be the ones doing it. For more, see what I’ve got to say about Chicago.

12. (13) Real Salt Lake (%)
Adding Kyle Beckerman should help this bunch. Not a lot, but I think he’ll help. They left their permanent dwelling in the shelter for that reason alone; at least they did something.

13. (12) Chicago Fire (1/2 of @)
Because I saw flashes of a competent team in the (horrible) loss to Houston, I tried - I mean, I really tried - to move these guys higher than Colorado; at least they had the wontons (brains? maybe...) to fire their coach. I still think they’ll improve, but, points collected excepted, they are statistically worse than Real Salt Lake; and that’s with RSL having a game in hand. Unbelievable.

God. Typing those last five entries was depressing. With #9 excepted, things don’t look much better in the current standings (here are the official ones):

Eastern Conference
1. N.E. Revs: 26 pts. (7-3-5: 26 GF, 17 GA, +9; home, 3-1-3; away, 4-2-2)
2. KC Wizards: 25 pts. (7-5-4: 27 GF, 22 GA, +4; home, 4-3-1; away, 3-2-3)
3. DC United: 24 pts. (7-5-3: 26 GF, 21 GA, +5; home, 4-1-2; away, 2-4-1)
4. Red Bull NY: 24 pts. (7-6-3: 25 GF, 21 GA, +4; home, 4-2-1; away, 3-4-2)
5. C’bus Crew: 22 pts. (5-5-7: 21 GF, 23 GA, -2; home, 4-1-4; away, 1-4-3)
6. Toronto FC: 19 pts. (5-7-4: 18 GF, 24 GA, -6; home, 4-3-0; away, 1-4-4)
7. Chicago Fire: 16 pts. (4-8-4: 13 GF, 26 GA, -13; home, 3-3-3; away, 1-5-1)

Western Conference
1. H'ton Dynamo: 33 pts. (10-5-3: 25 GF, 10 GA, +15; home, 4-2-1; away, 5-4-2)
2. FC Dallas: 30 pts. (9-6-3: 24 GF, 24 GA, 0; home, 4-2-1; away, 5-4-2)
3. Chivas USA: 24 pts. (7-5-3: 20 GF, 16 GA; +4; home, 6-0-1; away, 1-5-2)
4. Colo Rapids: 17 pts. (4-8-5: 14 GF, 22 GA, -8; home 2-3-4; away, 2-5-1)
5. LA Galaxy: 13 pts. (3-5-4: 17 GF, 18 GA, -1; home, 3-3-2; away, 0-2-2)
6. Real Salt Lake: 9 pts. (1-8-6: 12 GF, 24 GA, -12; home, 1-2-3; away, 0-3-3)

Week 14 Collective Rankings (& Fronting)

The Semi-Detached Pundit Collective (SDPC) returns after a week off; I think we’re all catching up after the Week 14 Cluster-fuck. We’re holding steady at nine power-ranking pundits (PPPs?) and, of course, On Soccer’s Scariness ratings (both Week 13 and 14) show up again introducing an element of predictive science - the impact of form on rankings - to the proceedings. I’ll link, as always, to The DCenters Freezer, despite the risk posed by introducing “anti-rankings” to the rest of the rankings.

Some things that occur to me appear after the numbers - and there are some interesting elements in here.

Here are the sources for this week’s SPDC rankings. I always forget to say this, but I'd encourage people to read the commentary; it tells you a lot about the author:

It’s a Simple Game
Sideline Views (Luis Bueno)
Sideline Views (Andrea Canales)
WVHooligan
My Soccer Blog
MLS Underground
ESPN
SI - Ryan Hunt
Fox Soccer Channel

Now, on to the numbers:

1. Houston Dynamo, 1.0 (last week: 2/3 - 2.4; SR: 1)
2. DC United, 2.8 (6th - 5.1; SR: 4)
3. FC Dallas, 3.3 (5th - 4.9; SR: 3)
4. New England Revolution, 4.0 (1st - 2.3; SR: 7)
5. Red Bull New York, 4.7 (2/3 - 2.4; SR: 10)
6. Kansas City Wizards, 6.6 (4th - 4.4; SR: 9)
7. Columbus Crew, 6.9 (8th - 8.0; SR: 2)
8. Chivas USA, 7.4 (7th - 7.4; SR: 8)
9. Toronto FC, 9.2 (9th - 8.4; SR: 5)
10. Los Angeles Galaxy, 10.0 (13th - 12.3; SR: 6)
11. Colorado Rapids, 10.8 (10th - 10.0; SR: 12)
12. Chicago Fire, 11.8 (11th - 11.7; SR: 13)
13. Real Salt Lake, 13.0 (12th - 12.0; SR: 11)

- Houston is the new, and undisputed, #1 - no shock there.

- Speaking of new and undisputed, Real Salt Lake racked up perfect “13s” for the first time in a while...congratulations, Mr. Kreis. And as ESPN pointed out, Kreis earned a contract extension for this. Um, wow.

- And, somehow, between today’s SPDC rankings and Week 12’s, LA climbed rather abruptly out of the basement...and I think they owe Brian Hall big for this.

- Opinion is split on a couple teams - KC and New England to name a couple - but no team has divided the punditry like Red Bull New York. They rank as high as #2 (Canales) and as low as #8 (me). (I suppose here’s where I should mention the Revs are nearly as baffling: I’ve got them at #2 while Bueno plugs them in at #7...in any case...) I think the scariness figure for Red Bull says a lot about their recent, very bad form; not to start an argument, but I’m wondering if people are clinging to early season memories when rating the New York franchise. Another possibility would be that I’m the outlier.

- By the way, anyone else see the pattern in the above-named teams? Yep. All three are Eastern Conference teams.

- The past two weeks’ big movers? Crap. Take yer pick and note they go both ways. That said, TFC's slip is a little surprising given they've finally showed a spark on the road.

- Except on the bottom: six of the nine pundits in the survey view rank the Rapids, the Fire and RSL, 11, 12, and 13, respectively (and I’m one! Yeah, me!). None of these teams moved a whole lot, which kind of confirms the suckiness.

- Since I started the bastardry above with the comments about New York, below are the weirdest choices made in the other pundits’ work, as judged by me (and, for those named, please feel free to stick up for your choice; it will make us all smarter):

Me, first: The implied homerism of my Revs’ pick; the Red Bull pick.
WVHooligan: Holy shit. He matches the collective exactly. Read him.
SI: Also pretty sane...the asshole.
Fox Soccer: KC at #8 and Columbus at #5, the latter is particularly odd.
Bueno: New England at #7? Red Bull at #3?
Canales: Red Bull at #2? Arguably, DC at #5?
ESPN: Red Bull over Dallas throws me a little...
My Soccer Blog: This man loves TFC (#7) and doesn’t think much of KC (#9).
MLS Underground: Not exact, but matches the collective closely.

I'll start the defenses: I think Red Bull's dive is real - e.g. that there's something wrong. The Revs, on the other hand, will do fine...and I kinda hate them for it. That is all.

MLS Week 14: Power Rankings and Progress Report

Week 14 was a hell of a thing, wasn’t it? Considering the crush of games between last Wednesday and yesterday afternoon en masse seems like trying to eat a Big Mac in one bite, something the Surgeon General would recommend against, no doubt. The weight of those games feels almost like a pivot point, a time to take stock of what came before and to study the prospects for the future.

As such, an expanded, context-free edition of this site’s power rankings seems in order. Rather than look back at past week’s rating, what comes below takes a step back for a shot at The Big Picture: impressions from the season’s frenetic, surprising opening games to the wilting pace of the recent, hot weeks, as well as signs of things to come will determine who goes where in this table; expect some personal blind-spots to misshape these standings as well (see: Galaxy, Los Angeles). Moreover, the rankings will bow to the playoff format: the top two teams from each conference will make up the top four, while the four teams that follow from there are the teams I expect to make the post-season.

In other words, an attempt will be made here to be both current and predictive...with the expectation that the distance between my estimation of things and reality should be amusingly vast.

Here goes...

1) Houston Dynamo
The Dynamo is, without question, the best team in Major League Soccer (MLS) right now. With them firing on all cylinders - and on both sides of the ball - I’m to a point where I’ll accept the vilest of food dares about this team making the playoffs (I’m open to drinking dares on them winning the West). Brad Davis’ injury upset the offensive balance a little, but Brian Ching/Joseph Ngwenya looks surprisingly effective and Stuart Holden looks like sufficient cover for DeRosario’s so-far sub-par 2007. With MLS’s (by far) sturdiest defense behind them, the Canadian Wonder only needs to wake up (or stops thinking about what tight bastards league honchos are midway through a dribble), for these guys will romp to a repeat.
What Might Kill ‘Em: Their brick-shithouse defense will carry them to the post-season, but they’ll need their offense to get them out of it smiling. A return of the early-season goals drought seems the likeliest pitfall. This matters because, among the rarefied breed of actual contenders, the question isn’t making the playoffs, but winning the league.

2) New England Revolution
When some people look at New England, they see a glass half-full; when I look at them, I see a glass three-quarters empty. Why am I hardest on the ones I love? That’s a big question with a tough love answer: the Revolution will grab the top spot in the East because they’re one of the rare teams in MLS without significant holes somewhere on the field - e.g. they’ll make it by default. Solid and unspectacular, they’re hard to beat and possess the firepower to punish most teams. New England takes the field with two missions, the second subordinate to the first: Mission 1: Stop the other team from scoring; Mission 2: score as many goals as possible without in any way compromising Mission 1. For what it’s worth, those adjectives - “solid and unspectacular” - get at why they make the finals, but don’t win them. The only question left is, why do I like this team?
What Might Kill ‘Em: Given the thin (certainly cheap, possibly cynical) calculus on which this team operates, they seem one prolonged slip in attentiveness or confidence away from contender, or even meaningful, post-season, status. It’s possible this is happening now, but I’ve waited a while for this slip to come, Steve Nicol to get fired, etc. Even through several series of rookie classes, it never has. What can I say? The man has a system and it works - even if it’s too often uninspiring.

3) DC United
In all honesty, DC is the only team in this mix I can see failing to make the playoffs. But I’ll also admit upfront I don’t know how they do what they do, but the fact remains that they do (got that? Good). Judging by form and appearances, Coach Tom Soehn has figured out how to make the pieces of his mysteriously effective machine work. Christian Gomez doesn’t seem the threat he was in 2006 and both their big-shit new signings still seem to be finding their feet....and, yet, the team from DC keeps making progress; maybe Troy Perkins rediscovering confidence played the key role there. Their middling scores in the significant statistical categories (goals for/against) come from their early season nightmare; the fact they’ve attained respectability speaks up the team’s recovery.
What Might Kill ‘Em: Placing DC so high relies on two suppositions: first, that there’s no shame to losing to Houston on the road and, second, dubbing the loss to Real Salt Lake an anomalous hiccup. The long and the short is that, because DC is a model organization - good fans, plugged-in front office - signs of progress seem reliable. Says here, they’ll make the playoffs.

4) FC Dallas
Call me crazy (cue chorus: “You’re crazy!”), but Dallas’ recent defensive solidity - along with the introduction of some leadership in Adrian Serioux - has me viewing them as 2007’s dark-horse contender; I give tons of credit for that turn-around to Dario Sala, but the rest of the pieces are shaping up as well. Add a return to health for Kenny Cooper into the mix, the likelihood of Carlos Ruiz, at last, slimming down to fighting weight, a great pair of recent additions in Juan Toja and Pablo Ricchetti, and - gasp - useful threats like Arturo Alvarez and Ramon Nunez lurking in the wings, and Dallas looks like a decent candidate for making some noise. There was something curiously inspiring - at least from the point of view of Dallas fans - to that draw with Houston a couple weeks back, ugly as it was. The knock on Dallas has always been fragility, so the sight of them kicking and scrapping walks that one back a bit.
What Might Kill ‘Em: When you’re cursed, you’re cursed. Dallas has to exercise their demons, establish a sense of belief they can win the big ones...whoops, the verb ought to be “exorcise.” It’s Ruiz they need to exercise...

5) Kansas City Wizards
This team can score; assuming Eddie Johnson doesn’t bring his Copa America form home with him, they should score even more. Wayward finishing has hurt them lately, but the chances are coming by, literally, the score. The Wizards are fast, pretty, and fun to watch. The fruits they derive from pressuring teams all over the field showed as recently as this past weekend against LA. The highly relevant question is whether that same pressuring game is what leaves them so vulnerable at the back. If you accept that statement that Dallas sets a Gold Standard (of sorts) for Dodgy Defending, what does the fact that KC has allowed one more goal in the season so far say? (And, it should be noted, in two fewer games.) The hard reality is that KC’s defensive performance ranks with Chicago’s and RSL’s - not good company. Sort out the defense and KC suddenly becomes a contender; but will sorting out the defense take away from the flash offense? That’s the question of KC’s season.
What Might Kill ‘Em: The defense, without question; teams that can shut up shop against these guys will find a way past them eventually.

6) Chivas USA
This constitutes one of my “wacky” pick (OK, the third, perhaps fourth), but I think I’ve got the general picture right, even if I louse up the details: i.e. the post-season will feature a 5-3 split, favoring the Eastern Conference. I’m feel comfortable, though not quite confident, about that call. Where I don’t feel so good is picking Chivas as that team. There’s enough to like about them - beginning with that c-rrazzzy home record (5-0-1, 1 goal conceded) - and, in general, they strike me as a team built essentially right for MLS: solid in terms of shape and equipped with enough lethality to win close ones. On the downside, their 8th in the league for scoring and, at times, it seems like Maykel Galindo is the all the offense they have. Then there’s that road form issue: 1-5-2...ouch. Still, a win or two - or as many ties as possible - in their seven remaining road games and the Goats control their destiny. Not too shabby.
What Might Kill ‘Em: So many different threats: a resurgence from LA; Colorado waking up and realizing they can win, etc. Combine any of these with Chivas’ struggles on the road and they’re one of the three Western Conference teams hitting the links early. For what it’s worth, I count LA getting their shit together the biggest threat.

7) Columbus Crew
I don’t view this as wacky; Columbus, making the playoffs, that is; placing them over New York? Maybe. The thing is, Columbus has as much depth as any team in the league - not quality of depth, but simple depth in the sense of players familiar with and available for familiar with positions. That amounts to guys playing where they’re comfortable, which should spare them the Personnel Hell Red Bull has endured. The Crew’s offense started showing signs of life with the deal that brought in Alejandro Moreno; Guillermo Schelotto has taken care of the running the show. The offense’s stir coincided with another happy event: the up-and-down defense hitting an up in the form of three consecutive clean-sheets and only six goals allowed in their last six games; mixed in all that were seven points of nine against higher-placed Eastern Conference rivals. In general, the trends are good; so long as the Crew keeps guys like Chad Marshall and Schelotto fit and productive they’re a plausible playoff team.
What Might Kill ‘Em: Injuries...or the possibility they'll wake up and remember they're Columbus. I kid, I kid. They’ve got great depth - in midfield in particular, even if it’s a bit green - but not a defense or forward. Take a hit there and this call goes pear-shaped fast.


8) Red Bull New York
Week 4 - y’know, back when no one could score on Red Bull and Dane Richards and Clint Mathis looked like God out there - well, that seems like ten seasons ago with the way Red Bull looks lately. A funny thing about that: it’s not so much that Red Bull simply sucks, but it appears they may just suck on the road - against competent teams, at least. The stretch of June and July games, in which Red Bull allowed 16 and scored only 10, featured six road games out of seven; the two wins they managed came against Colorado and a lucky one against Toronto. Seeing as they stay at home till the middle of August, we should all know a little more about New York by then. In the here and now, the injury-plagued defense draws a lot of commentary - and that is a problem - but there’s plenty more wrong with the Red Bulls, some related to aging Europeans fizzling on the wings. For all that, I get the sense that what’s becoming an annual struggle between Kansas City and New York will recur in 2007, only with a bigger potential prize: whichever team that gets things right soonest could easily bump New England or DC.
What Might Kill ‘Em: The comphrensive funk they’re now in could prove lethal. A lack of depth in defense is the chief structural problem, but they haven’t looked good much of anywhere. Could this be Arena’s first outright, no-safety failure? Will the New York market destroy another reputation? I'd pay to see that (because I'm a horrible, little man).

OK, since I don’t think the rest of these cats will make it, I’ll write shorter pieces for them. And do note the subtle difference in language: it’s no longer “what might kill ‘em,” but “What Might Let ‘Em In.”

9) Los Angeles Galaxy
If there's a fly in the ointment, it lives in LA. I thought they looked pretty good against KC - though that could be down to the Wizards approach buying them crazy amounts of space. Still, the difference between this game and how appallingly horrible they looked in losses to Colorado, Dallas, and the Crew recommends keeping an eye on this bunch. Unlike a number of teams below, LA has made trades to improve - or attempt to improve, anyway. They’re schedule might kill them in the end, but at least the cavalry has arrived.
What Might Let ‘Em In: It won’t take more than “good enough” form, a slip by Chivas, and continued horrible play from Colorado. Way stranger things have happened.

10) Toronto FC
I start the no-hopers list with the team most likely to defy the label. At least Toronto meets losses with determination, even anger; the rest of the remaining teams look flustered and harried. They’ve got the fight, but need to learn to win on the road. And, just to pass on a bit of advice: I don’t think playing both Colin Samuel and Danny Dichio is the answer.
What Might Let ‘Em In: A couple road wins would probably do it - especially if they come against the more vulnerable Eastern teams. Translation: they really needed to beat Chicago this past weekend.

11) Colorado Rapids...
....are in free-fall. Fire Fernando, dudes, your team hasn’t won since May. (Where’s Real Salt Lake when you need them?) On the upside, the main problem looks like offense: the wait for their last two-goal game goes back further still to April. At this point, it’s almost not a question that Clavijo is to blame: the man who excels at getting the most out of human reclamation projects has now built a team of them - and it shows.
What Might Let ‘Em In: The return of that mysterious Rapids/Raiders swagger. When they get in that “us-versus-them” mode, Colorado starts winning - ugly, yes, but winning all the same.

12) Chicago Fire
I don’t know anything about the Fire’s new coach, but I believe one thing to be true: Sir Alex Ferguson couldn’t make winners of this bunch. I kid, I kid. In truth, last weekend’s game against Toronto showed a lot about this Fire team: individual players found ways around the TFC defense, they played in beautiful balls to...to...no one. In one particular memorable (and sad) moment, Chris Armas capped a promising Fire move with a nearly perfect run into the area, but no one followed him, and no one was there to knock in an enticing, yet blind, cross. The thing is, that game was theirs for the taking.
What Might Let ‘Em In: Armas’ run wasn’t the only instance of good play going nowhere. Maybe Osorio will get the Fire’s attackers on the same page. There are useful players, but they’re misfiring to a degree where I want to hide the children.

13) Real Salt Lake
The odds would have to be biblical to make a bet on these guys to make the playoffs worth taking. The smarter bet might be on them beating Chivas’ worst-ever season. Bad, and unlikely to get better.
What Might Let ‘Em In: The Earth opening up and swallowing three teams from each conference. Points deduction for match-fixing among the teams above them. Perhaps a massive bribe to bring Jack Warner into the picture. In other words, it ain’t gonna happen.

MLS Week 13 Power Rankings

I'm pleased to report that all this weekend's results made sense to me on one level or another. I can't say the same for the rankings that follow, which blend inexplicable hostility and fits of indulgent favoritism with some chemicals I found on the shelf.

As always, last week’s ranking appears in parentheses immediately after this week’s ranking. So as to not misrepresent my judgment as entirely first-hand, here’s a key for my viewing: “@” means I watched a given team’s most recent performance in its entirety; “$” means I caught it through Quick Kicks, which provides extended highlights; “%” means I watched only the rump highlights available through MLSnet.com.

Here goes...and after the rankings, you’ll find a current listing of the standings for the permanent record.

1. (2) DC United (%)
They flip-flop with the Dynamo based solely on the fact that they won. Reports didn’t tell of a sterling performance, in spite of the score - and the team they beat (Colorado) doesn’t add to the equation. But a win is a win...

2. (1) Houston Dynamo (@)
...which is why DC tops Houston this week; worse, FC Dallas knocked ‘em around pretty good. This team needs to recover some sass after this weekend’s draw.

3. (5) FC Dallas (@)
Finally, Dallas is showing they can defend. The attack sputtered a bit while that came online, but they have options on the bench (Ramon Nunez; didn’t say it was a great option, but it’s a different look) and will improve more when guys like Kenny Cooper and Adrian Serioux heal. All in all, Morrow keeps bringing in players, so the ambition is very much there.

4. (3) New England Revolution (a good chunk of @)
If I could justify dropping these guys further, I would. I really, really would. Personally, I don’t think these guys are firing on half their cylinders.

5. (6) Kansas City Wizards (nada)
When giving up just one goal is cause for celebration, you know problems lurk. Still, they attack like demons - perhaps spazzy, half-blind demons, but demons all the same.

6. (7) Columbus Crew (a good chunk of @)
I can’t stop inching this team up the table - but so long as they’re winning, especially against Eastern Conference teams above them in the table, I don’t know why I would. I really like the statement of a win without Schelotto.

7. (4) Red Bull New York (a good chunk of @)
Even with defenders returning and one more acquired (Kevin Goldthwaite) they couldn’t keep out Columbus...let's underline that: Columbus. Moreover, they broke down even more. In fact, nothing went well for Red Bull, who haven’t won since June 6 and seemed to have forgotten how.

8. (8) Chivas USA (a good chunk of @)
My earlier over-enthusing over Chivas’ record leaves me a little gun-shy about rating them. Right now, I know two things about this team: they’re superb at home and they have a very special player in Maykel Galindo. I doubt that’s enough to carry them, but it’s probably good enough for the playoffs.

9. (9) Toronto FC (nada)
Sounds like they got lucky. But they’ve got some useful players and a good enough team to sit firmly on the bubble. They can go either way from here.

10. (10) Colorado Rapids (% + thank god - nada)
Does Fernando still have a job? More to the point, will he in one week? Two weeks? FC Rocky said it best with their lament over the Rapids inability to knock off a pitiful, flummoxed Chicago.

11. (11) Los Angeles Galaxy (idle)
Will the week off help? Not nearly as much as getting back Donovan. With Pavon coming and Beckham to follow, these guys look poised to make a move. A failure to do so...well...I think I’d just have to laugh.

12. (12) Real Salt Lake (idle)
Week 14 is your time to shine, little diamond.

13. (13) Chicago Fire (thank god - nada)
Turns out “Chicago” and “chaos” share more than just a couple letters. From what I read about their last performance, it was the worst of the season. This is a team in meltdown.

Now, the standings (official listings):

Eastern Conference
1. New England Revs: 22 pts. (6-3-4: 24 GF, 16 GA, +8; home, 3-1-2; away, 3-2-2)
2. Kansas City Wiz: 21 pts. (6-4-3: 24 GF, 19 GA, +5; home, 3-2-1; away, 3-2-2)
3. Red Bull New York: 21 pts. (6-4-3: 24 GF, 16 GA, +8; home, 4-1-1; away, 2-3-2)
4. DC United: 20 pts. (6-4-2: 22 GF, 17 GA, +5; home, 5-1-1; away, 1-3-1)
5. Columbus Crew: 18 pts. (4-4-6: 18 GF, 21 GA, -3; home, 3-1-4; away, 1-3-2)
6. Chicago Fire: 15 pts. (4-6-3: 12 GF, 19 GA, -7; home, 3-2-2; away, 1-3-1)
7. Toronto FC: 14 pts. (4-7-2: 15 GF, 22 GA, -7; home, 4-3-0; away, 0-4-2)

Western Conference
1. FC Dallas: 26 pts. (8-6-2: 19 GF, 21 GA, -2; home, 3-2-1; away, 5-4-1)
2. Houston Dynamo: 23 pts. (7-5-2: 16 GF, 10 GA, +6; home, 4-2-1; away, 3-3-1)
3. Chivas USA: 20 pts. (6-4-2: 17 GF, 12 GA; +5; home, 5-0-1; away, 1-4-1)
4. Colorado Rapids: 16 pts. (4-7-4: 14 GF, 21 GA, -7; home 2-2-3; away, 2-5-1)
5. Los Angeles Galaxy: 9 pts. (2-5-3: 13 GF, 16 GA, -3; home, 2-3-1; away, 0-2-2)
6. Real Salt Lake: 9 pts. (1-5-6: 11 GF, 19 GA, -8; home, 1-2-3; away, 0-3-3)

MLS Week 12 Collective Power Rankings

The Semi-Detached Pundit Collective (SDPC) lost a couple this week; I never saw ranking for The Other Football or Soccer by Ives - the latter is really slipping (though he said, through a spokesman*, that the Gold Cup and the Copa are keeping him too busy) (* I have never corresponded in any way with Mr. Galarcep - unless commenting on his site counts - and don’t believe he even has a spokesman; so, yeah, I made that up.)

Here are the sources for this week’s SPDC rankings:

It’s a Simple Game
Sideline Views (Luis Bueno)
Sideline Views (Andrea Canales)
WVHooligan
My Soccer Blog
MLS Underground
ESPN
SI - Ryan Hunt
Fox Soccer Channel

And, once again, The DCenters Freezer (kinda like reverse rankings) merits honorable mention, as do the conference-based rankings provided by Who Ate All the Cupcakes. Dan Loney’s weekly rankings make the list today (though they weren’t plugged into the numbers below) courtesy of my admiration for his use of educational attainment as the means of ranking. Finally, I lifted the scariness rating for each team from On Soccer and entered that number after their collective ranking...I keep forgetting to check that out as a predictor...maybe he’ll do it one day.

Now, on to the numbers:

1. New England Revolution, 2.3 (4th - 4.3; SR: 2)
2/3. Houston Dynamo, 2.4 (7th - 6.5; SR: 1)
2/3. Red Bull New York, 2.4 (2nd - 2.6; SR: 8)
4. Kansas City Wizards, 4.4 (last week: 1st - 1.1; SR: 5)
5. FC Dallas, 4.9 (6th - 6.4; SR: 6)
6. DC United, 5.1 (3rd - 2.7; SR: 3)
7. Chivas USA, 7.4 (5th - 5.5; SR: 9)
8. Columbus Crew, 8.0 (12th - 11.5; SR: 4)
9. Toronto FC, 8.4 (8th - 7.3; SR: 7)
10. Colorado Rapids, 10.0 (9th - 9.1; SR: 13)
11. Chicago Fire, 11.7 (10th - 10.3; SR: 12)
12. Real Salt Lake, 12.0 (13th - 12.9; SR: 5)
13. Los Angeles Galaxy, 12.3 (11th - 10.8; SR: 11)

Some observations:

- We have a new consensus pick for worst team in MLS. Puke and cry, Alexi Lalas! Puke and cry!!

- The Colorado Rapids are your unanimous #10 pick...that’s not a good thing.

- Things look good for the Crew, on the other hand, whom the SDPC has officially judged to be a playoff team. Obviously, the Crew are also this week’s major climbers; they gained 3.5, which might be the biggest-ever jump in these rankings.

- Whoops. I take it back. The Dynamo rose 4.1. Yikes.

- Going the other way, pundits punished DC severely for the slip against RSL.

- As the season staggers (hey, it’s summer) to its midway point, the league’s teams seem be breaking into three groups: the top 6, the bubble teams of 7-9, and the apparent no-hopers from 11-13. You may have noticed that Colorado doesn’t fit into this scheme - yes, they are special.

- With regard to that top six, their inclusion in that group was universal (only Andrea Canales of Sideline Views plugged a top six team outside that range in their rankings - and it was DC United in Canales list). But look at what’s happening with the top three in the collective rankings: they’re essentially neck-and-neck, which says a lot about what this league knows from dominance as a concept. For the record, the Dynamo’s numbers were most tightly clustered, but New England gathered more #1 rankings than the other two; Red Bull snuck in by balancing their two 4’s against two 1’s. It’ll be interesting to see which team in this group breaks out.

- The Revolution’s climb is interesting. Their homestand kinda sucked, but they still climbed quite a bit (2.0). I’d put that down to them gaining the top spot and the stumbles of their competitors, as opposed to meaningful signs of life from New England. But competition is competition: you don’t always have to win to gain ground in a league set up.

All right. All for this week. There are some interesting times ahead.

(###########)

MLS Week 12 Power Rankings (Just Mine)

I give up. Just when you think one - just one - Major League Soccer (MLS) team can hold their shit together and do a decent imitation of consistency, they spend 90 minutes running around with their pants around their ankles. It seems the Annual Mush of Sweaty Mediocrity (your people call it “summer”) has arrived.

For the record, the entire middle portion of these rankings was arrived at by writing each teams name on a piece of paper, scrambling those around my desk, and flipping them over in random order. OK, that’s a lie. But I don’t think that would produce less accurate, or even meaningful, results. In broad terms, some teams have noticeably improved - think Columbus and Houston here - while others revived their fortunes, but not without tripping over some question marks (New England); other teams suffered mysterious slips, thereby stitching big red question marks over those rainbows on their jerseys...the allusion should be obvious here.

As always, last week’s ranking appears in parentheses immediately after this week’s ranking. So as to not misrepresent my judgment as entirely first-hand, here’s a key for my viewing: “@” means I watched a given team’s most recent performance in its entirety; “$” means I caught it through Quick Kicks, which provides extended highlights; “%” means I watched only the rump highlights available through MLSnet.com.

Here goes...and after the rankings, you’ll find a current listing of the standings for the permanent record.

1. (6) Houston Dynamo (% + nada)
They have out-scored the opposition 11-3 over the past five, racking up five wins on the way; that counts two away games as well. That constitutes a roll in my world. To top it all off, they’ve got Dallas next weekend, who they not only generally own, but, given that they won last weekend, should be due a loss this weekend.

2. (1) DC United (%)
In spite of what I read (all over the place), I’ll give DC the benefit of the doubt and call this weekend a brain-fart...but I also couldn’t leave them at #1 after they let RSL break their hot, steamy duck all over them.

3. (5) New England Revolution (@)
Yep, they’re officially top of the league. But it was a graceless win against a Toronto team apparently confused about being away from home. The finishing was there, but not much else. But they’re indisputably doing better than most (and, I just discovered, they’ve tied for scoring lead and have the best goal differential...hmm...).

4. (4) Red Bull New York (idle)
Holding steady...but they’ll drop quickly if they don’t sort out their defense.

5. (8) FC Dallas (far too much of @)
Unconvincing (and harrowingly boring) wins look a lot less impressive when bookended by losses - as this one will be (see above). The reality is, Dallas isn’t as erratic as I think, but the games-played “bubble” on which they’re sitting keeps me from thinking too much of them. Then again, their away record makes up for that. Very confusing team, this one.

6. (2) Kansas City Wizards ($ + nada)
Speaking of teams needing to sort out defense, KC is the real case-study for this. No doubt KC wishes Week 12 never happened. The picture looks a lot less rosy now that the offense has dried up.

7. (9) Columbus Crew ($ + $)
It’s only due to a belief that the “real” Columbus has shown up that I’m able to rank them inside the playoff picture. But the Crew’s two wins in Week 12 justifiably raise eyebrows - that each raises them for different reasons only reinforces the impression this team could be finding their feet.

8. (3) Chivas USA (%)
My previous, ridiculous ranking has more to do with this drop than the four-goal loss. Still, a score of Brad Davis 3 - 0 Chivas USA doesn’t look so hot. I’ll actually have to watch these guys this weekend to figure out what to do with ‘em.

9. (7) Toronto FC (@)
I can only say, the hell was that? If these guys don’t figure out how to avoid blowouts on the road, goal differential alone will keep them out of the post-season.

10. (11) Colorado Rapids (far too much of @)
They may not be the worst team in the league - so many good candidates below - but they’re pushing hard for “Team I’d Least Like to Watch” honors. It’s a shame what’s happening in Colorado; this year promised so much.

11. (10) Los Angeles Galaxy ($)
Ahem...ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, HA!! 60 minutes with a man advantage - and against Columbus! Landon can’t arrive soon enough; neither can Pavon or Beckham. Incredibly, they may not be enough (though I think they will be).

12. (13) Real Salt Lake (%)
Robbie Findley (a good Oregon lad!) finally kicked the winless monkey off this team’s back. Better still, they catch something of a break in hosting Toronto this weekend (dammit! what to watch?!). Can they make it two? Do RSL fans dare to dream?

13. (12) Chicago Fire (idle)
I think I just don’t like Chicago. That the coming cavalry runs “exactly like elderly men run,” and the players sounding unsettled-to-pissed, things aren’t looking everywhere but up.

Please, lord, no more...it’s madness. Let’s do something concrete, like the standings (official edition here):

Eastern Conference
1. New England Revs: 22 pts. (6-2-4: 24 GF, 14 GA, +10; home, 3-1-2; away, 3-1-2)
2. Red Bull New York: 21 pts. (6-3-3: 24 GF, 15 GA, +9; home, 4-1-1; away, 2-2-2)
3. Kansas City Wiz: 20 pts. (6-4-2: 23 GF, 18 GA, +5; home, 3-2-0; away, 3-2-2)
4. DC United: 17 pts. (5-4-2: 18 GF, 16 GA, +2; home, 4-1-1; away, 1-3-1)
5. Columbus Crew: 15 pts. (3-4-6: 17 GF, 21 GA, -4; home, 2-1-4; away, 1-3-2)
6. Chicago Fire: 14 pts. (4-6-2: 12 GF, 19 GA, -7; home, 3-2-1; away, 1-3-1)
7. Toronto FC: 13 pts. (4-7-1: 14 GF, 21 GA, -7; home, 4-3-0; away, 0-4-1)

Western Conference
1. FC Dallas: 25 pts. (8-6-1: 19 GF, 21 GA, -2; home, 3-2-0; away, 5-4-1)
2. Houston Dynamo: 22 pts. (7-5-1: 16 GF, 10 GA, +6; home, 4-2-1; away, 3-3-0)
3. Chivas USA: 17 pts. (5-4-2: 15 GF, 12 GA; +3; home, 4-0-1; away, 1-4-1)
4. Colorado Rapids: 15 pts. (4-6-3: 13 GF, 17 GA, -4; home 2-2-3; away, 2-4-0)
5. Los Angeles Galaxy: 9 pts. (2-5-3: 13 GF, 16 GA, -3; home, 2-3-1; away, 0-2-2)
6. Real Salt Lake: 9 pts. (1-5-6: 11 GF, 19 GA, -8; home, 1-2-3; away, 0-3-3)

MLS Collective Rankings: Week 11

Good news: a couple more pundits came forward - or, rather, were discovered - this week, thus growing the Semi-Detached Pundit Collective (SDPC). The “new normal” established last week will carry over to this - e.g. the rankings below will show this week’s ranking, last week’s ranking, and each team’s scariness rating. It should be acknowledged at least that increasing the number of pundits could screw up the results. Then again, what do I care? I’m not a statistician...

Here are the new and - damn right! - improved sources for this week’s SPDC rankings:

It’s a Simple Game
The Other Football
Sideline Views (Luis Bueno)
Sideline Views (Andrea Canales) NEW!!
WVHooligan
My Soccer Blog
MLS Underground
ESPN
SI - Ryan Hunt
Fox Soccer Channel NEW!!
Soccer by Ives

And, once again, The DCenters Freezer (kinda like reverse rankings) merits honorable mention...wish I could figure out how to get them in here.

Now, on to the numbers:

1. Kansas City Wizards, 1.1 (last week: 1st - 1.3; SR: 5)
2. Red Bull New York, 2.6 (2nd - 2.8; SR: 6)
3. DC United, 2.7 (4th - 3.3; SR: 2)
4. New England Revolution, 4.3 (3rd - 2.9; SR: 8)
5. Chivas USA, 5.5 (7th - 6.8; SR: 1)
6. FC Dallas, 6.4 (5th - 5.5; SR: 9)
7. Houston Dynamo, 6.5 (6th - 6.1; SR: 4)
8. Toronto FC, 7.3 (9th - 8.9; SR: 3)
9. Colorado Rapids, 9.1 (8th - 7.9; SR: 13)
10. Chicago Fire, 10.3 (10th - 9.9; SR: 12)
11. Los Angeles Galaxy, 10.8 (11/12th - 11.6; SR: 7)
12. Columbus Crew, 11.5 (11/12th - 11.6; SR: 10)
13. Real Salt Lake, 12.9 (13th - 12.6; SR: 11)

Some observations:

- I need an explanation as to how anyone can rank Chicago above 12. As I discovered when compiling my power rankings, Chicago has been every bit as bad as Real Salt Lake over the past eight games (4 points earned for each). To make matters worse, a case can be made the Chicago is actually worse; RSL has managed a result in four games, while the Fire has done so on only two occasions. That arguably makes RSL the more consistent team. (So, why’d I rank RSL lower? Call-ups will return for the Fire and Blanco will come; RSL just gets back Freddy Adu...).

- This week’s big climbers are pretty obvious: Chivas USA and Toronto FC. I think Chivas is flying too low for people to notice, but they’re looking pretty solid.

- FC Dallas took a hit - and rightly so. That’s what they get for edging RSL and getting slaughtered by TFC.

- I know I was alone in folding last night’s Columbus win into my rankings (everyone else posted before it happened); I’m really wondering what that will do for the Crew.

- On a related note, I really wonder what that will do to KC’s rankings. It seems like no one notices the number of goals that team is allowing. As I said in my rankings, they’ve got the league’s fifth-worst offense - and the competition on that sucks.

- It should also be noted that Dallas is pretty dire on defense...I think they’re league worst.

- Boldest call of the week: My Soccer Blog put Toronto at #4.

- Craziest call of the week: Andrea Canales putting DC United at #6...and FC Dallas at #3.

MLS Week 11 Power Rankings (the last one posted)

Let it be established that each “Major League Soccer (MLS) Week” shall begin at 12 a.m. each Thursday till the end of the 2007 season...or maybe not. Damn those scheduling interns. The real problem is last night’s game, in which Columbus snuck a win over Kansas City (I told you the Crew would cause problems for some good teams; just didn't think it would match this week's); seeing as I can’t wash that one out of my mind, I’m just going to incorporate it below.

As always, last week’s ranking appears in parentheses immediately after this week’s ranking. So as to not misrepresent my judgment as entirely first-hand, here’s a key for my viewing: “@” means I watched a given team’s most recent performance in its entirety; “$” means I caught it through Quick Kicks, which provides extended highlights; “%” means I watched only the rump highlights available through MLSnet.com.

For the record, I like my top three; or, rather, I think I can justify my thinking on those. #4 - 6 is a bit of a mash-up - and it’s possible #6 may blow up in my face within 12 hours. I like #7. #8-11 are, essentially, inter-changeable. The bottom two, however, are solid.

Here goes...and after the rankings, you’ll find a current listing of the standings for the permanent record.

1. (2) DC United (didn’t see it, didn’t hear it...)
No, I haven’t seen these guys play in weeks. The thing is, DC is about the only team in the league doing well on both sides of the ball.

2. (3) Kansas City Wizards ($ + 1/2 of @)
Five MLS teams have allowed more goals than KC; trouble is, those teams suck (except, arguably, Dallas - but their defense sucks). If the goals dry up - as they did last night - the slipshod defense hurts this team.

3. (5) Chivas USA (%)
Chivas has earned the same number of points as DC - even if a weaker Western Conference has something to do with that - and the same argument for their ranking applies. Count tonight a “statement game” - or a cliché. While they can’t actually take over top spot in the West, a win would say just as much.

4. (1) Red Bull New York ($)
This team’s defensive problems are serious and don’t appear to be going away any time soon. I regret last week’s ranking error.

5. (4) New England Revolution (@)
Nice as it was to see Adam Cristman score two (though his leering come-hither to Pat Noonan must be blacked out to keep the skin from crawling) - hell, nice as it was to see Noonan look like himself - the Revs has issues. The luck that carried them through a few games nearly dried up last week; was the last drop sprinkled on Cristman’s first goal?

6. (6) Houston Dynamo (idle)
Some weeks you don’t have to do anything to hold steady. But, as with Chivas, tonight is statement time. Anyone else see a nice little rivalry blossoming between those two teams?

7. (9) Toronto FC ($)
Re-enacted The Burning Bed over a weary FC Dallas* and they look a safe bet to avoid the whole “worst team in history” tag. It’s time to see if they can make their hard-knock game work on the road. (*Such horrible analogies come to me all day, every day and, I assure you, the original edit was worse. My internal censor took a half-day.)

8. (7) FC Dallas (1/2 hour of @ + %)
Let’s see...they BARELY beat the league’s accidental comedy troupe and then got mauled by Canadians. Canadians! (kidding...I’m just warming up for tonight.) Were it not for the fact they play consistent .500 ball, they’d drop further.

9. (10) Columbus Crew (@ + 1/2 of @)
I stand firmly in the column that assumes this team is better than their record. Again, with the odds of the Crew picking up four points against their past two opponents, I really, REALLY wish I had a sports book nearby.

10. (12) Los Angeles Galaxy (@)
LA hasn’t given teams or fans cause to respect them this season. Yeah, they beat RSL...rah, rah. The best thing you can say about them is they’re trying to improve.

11. (8) Colorado Rapids (%)
These cats haven’t won since May. And, unlike LA, I’m not seeing them doing anything to improve. To make matters worse, Dallas’s on-off pattern augurs a win for the Colorado side this weekend.

12. (11) Chicago Fire (didn’t see it, didn’t hear it...)
Reduced to the quality of a college team by injuries and call-ups, why believe a new coach can turn things around. It took some math to realize just how bad things are in Chicago: they’ve taken 4 POINTS from their last 8 games. For the record, that’s RSL bad - literally. RSL has equaled Chicago for points over the past 8 games.

13. (13) Real Salt Lake (1/2 hour of @ + @)
Setting the standard for sucking in 2007 and building on a proud tradition.

Moving on to the standings (painstakingly recreated by Franklin Mint engravers from the current official ones):

Eastern Conference
1. Red Bull New York: 21 pts. (6-3-3: 24 GF, 15 GA, +9; home, 4-1-1; away, 2-2-2)
2. Kansas City Wiz: 20 pts. (6-3-2: 23 GF, 17 GA, +6; home, 3-1-0; away, 3-2-2)
3. New England Revs: 19 pts. (5-2-4: 21 GF, 14 GA, +7; home, 2-1-2; away, 3-1-2)
4. DC United: 17 pts. (5-3-2: 17 GF, 14 GA, +3; home, 4-1-1; away, 1-2-1)
5. Chicago Fire: 14 pts. (4-6-2: 12 GF, 19 GA, -7; home, 3-2-1; away, 1-3-1)
6. Toronto FC: 13 pts. (4-6-1: 14 GF, 18 GA, -4; home, 4-3-0; away, 0-3-1)
7. Columbus Crew: 12 pts. (2-4-6: 14 GF, 19 GA, -5; home, 2-1-4; away, 0-3-2)

Western Conference
1. FC Dallas: 22 pts. (7-6-1: 18 GF, 21 GA, -3; home, 3-2-0; away, 4-4-1)
2. Chivas USA: 17 pts. (5-3-2: 15 GF, 8 GA; +7; home, 4-0-1; away, 1-3-1)
3. Houston Dynamo: 16 pts. (5-5-1: 11 GF, 10 GA, +1; home, 3-2-1; away, 2-3-0)
4. Colorado Rapids: 15 pts. (4-5-3: 13 GF, 16 GA, -3; home 2-1-3; away, 2-4-0)
5. Los Angeles Galaxy: 9 pts. (2-4-3: 11 GF, 13 GA, -2; home, 2-2-1; away, 0-2-2)
6. Real Salt Lake: 6 pts. (0-5-6: 9 GF, 18 GA, -9; home, 0-2-3; away, 0-3-3)

MLS Week 10 Collective Power Rankings

I’m not 100% certain of this, but it appears that the shiny allure of the Gold Cup has momentarily distracted Ives Galarcep from compiling power rankings. No matter, the roster of (unwittingly) drafted pundits remains at eight for this week, thanks to Sports Illustrated’s Ryan Hunt getting in his numbers a day earlier than usual.

And thus, the Semi-Detached Pundit Collective (SDPC) has rendered judgment on Week 10 of Major League Soccer action. And, once again, I’m adding a little feature. A guy named Pat Eyler, who runs On Soccer, came up with a pretty cool mechanism for tracking the state of MLS play; he calls them the Scariness Ratings. Because the formula for ranking differs so much - e.g. he uses math, while the rest of us go rummaging around the obscure corners of our asses - they don’t quite work with everyone else’s. Still, I’m of the opinion that Eyler could be on to something that may or may not be more useful that what the rest of us have. On the chance he is, I’m going to slip Eyler’s scariness figure (kinda like Beyers for horse racing) into the data-dump; the number for each team will follow the initials SR. And here’s a link to Eyler’s Scariness ratings.

I will once again acknowledge where each team stood in last week’s rankings parenthetically.

Moving on, here’s the source material for this week’s SPDC rankings:

It’s a Simple Game
The Other Football
Sideline Views (Luis Bueno)
WVHooligan
My Soccer Blog
MLS Underground
ESPN
SI - Ryan Hunt

A couple other rankings systems deserve honorable mention: The DCenters Freezer (kinda like reverse rankings) and Who Ate All The Cupcakes by-conference rankings.

Finally with the SDPC’s numbers:

1. Kansas City Wizards, 1.3 (last week: 1st - 1.1; SR: 3)
2. Red Bull New York, 2.8 (2nd - 2.0; SR: 5)
3. New England Revolution, 2.9 (3rd - 3.1; SR: 7)
4. DC United, 3.3 (4th - 4.4; SR: 1)
5. FC Dallas, 5.5 (6th - 6.9; SR: 6)
6. Houston Dynamo, 6.1 (9th - 8.4; SR: 4)
7. Chivas USA, 6.8 (8th - 8.0; SR: 2)
8. Colorado Rapids, 7.9 (5th - 5.1; SR: 10)
9. Toronto FC, 8.9 (7th - 7.1; SR: 9)
10. Chicago Fire, 9.9 (10th - 9.0; SR: 11)
11/12. Los Angeles Galaxy, 11.6 (11th - 11.3; SR: 12)
11/12. Columbus Crew, 11.6 (12th - 12.0; SR: 13)
13. Real Salt Lake, 12.6 (13th - 12.6; SR: 8)

Some observations:

- Last week, I focused on numerical rises and falls, but this week changes in placement are also catching my eye. For instance, look at what happened with Houston: from 9th to 6th in one week’s time (their numbers moved around a lot as well). Roughly the same thing happened with Toronto, albeit going the other way. Funny how one result can change perceptions so sharply - though that’s often a case of building on a streak (as with Houston) or in dashing expectations (as with Toronto and winning at home).

- OK, I admit it. I single-handedly skewed KC’s ranking by placing them third; everyone else has them at 1st. Let’s just say I’m holding judgment till I see what their defense does.

- While we're on the subject of outlying calls, here are some notable ones. I kinda lead the pack with, not only with the KC call, but with how I see Columbus, Red Bull, and Chivas USA; we'll see how those pan out in the weeks ahead. I also hate the Fire more than anyone else. Some other weird ones: ESPN has bought in the least on DC's rise; My Soccer Blog is alone in not considering Chivas playoff material...and, well, that's it. So, yeah, I wasn't kidding about me leading on weird calls.

- Speaking of consistency - and I’m part of the group this time (take that, epperley!) - Colorado was very nearly a universal #8 - and thus, “if the season ended today,” the final playoff team. Sorry, TFC.

- The second and third spots are worth a glance as well. Red Bull’s drop makes some sense (though I think it’s exaggerated...we shall see...), but more curious is New England’s little rise on an idle week.

- No less curious is Dallas’ rather impressive hop - especially that 1.4 in points.

- Returning to the Scariness ratings, I think the most interesting thing with those will be the extent to which they’re predictive; keep an eye on Chivas for that. And Real Salt Lake for that matter.

(########)

MLS Week 10 Power Rankings...when I lose my mind...

I’m in a mood today and it’s going to affect what appears below. Yesterday’s mega project - the one in which I wrapped my head around where things are at the 1/3 point of the season - has me thinking a little differently about some Major League Soccer (MLS) teams. It’s mainly a gut thing, but I’m going to be thinking about the future as much as the present in what comes below. Anyway, that should explain some of the weirder calls I make below...

As usual, last week’s ranking appears in parentheses immediately after this week’s ranking. So as to not misrepresent my judgment as entirely first-hand, here’s a key for my viewing: “@” means I watched a given team’s most recent performance in its entirety; “$” means I caught it through Quick Kicks, which provides extended highlights; “%” means I watched only the rump highlights available through MLSnet.com. Later today, I’ll compare what I’ve got below with the other rankings I’ve found - though, as always, I compiled my rankings without reference to anyone else’s. And, wow, was this week’s viewing spotty.

In keeping with my tradition of blaming health/sleep-deprivation for any silly something that appears below, holy shit, are allergies kicking my ass. My eyes looked like fucking glazed donuts last night and I got two nosebleeds from the pressure in my head. I came across some site on the internet that matches your zip code to likely allergens; that’s where I learned that walnut trees are the likely culprit. So, if you live in the Hillsboro, Oregon area and you see a bald, alcohol-crazed dude taking an axe to a walnut tree, well, that’d be me. Motherfuckers must pay!

Ahem...at any rate, this week got a little messy. For the record, I’m thinking #1-4 are essentially interchangeable; the same goes for #5-8...and #10-13 for that matter. I have strong feelings only for #9.

Here goes...and after the rankings, you’ll find a current listing of the standings for the permanent record.

1. (2) Red Bull New York ($ + %)
Yeah, I know, I know. Why does a team still nursing a sore ass from the last weekend actually rise in the standings? It goes back to the project mentioned at the top: I think the Red Bulls are fundamentally sound. With Angel in the mix they’re scoring steadily and they’ve got a good defense when it’s actually on the field...then again, I won’t be surprised if this one goes sideways, though.

2. (3) DC United (%)
Sadly, I couldn’t get a great sense of this game from the highlights. I only know that DC is on a very good run. I expect it will continue - maybe not to the same degree, but I do think this team has rediscovered its rhythm.

3. (1) Kansas City Wizards (idle)
Again, why? And, again, it’s the project. I can’t get the goals their defense is surrendering out of my head. And it’s not like Eddie Johnson is going to score a hat-trick every weekend; that’s low-percentage stuff. Count this another dubious call, but it’s the one I’m making.

4. (5) New England Revolution (idle)
This represents the one time I go against The Project (I think I’ve referred to it enough to capitalize): New England simply has a good balance to its team. I stand by my belief that they’ve been more lucky than good, but a good defense plus a good-enough offense equals a decent team. The only question is whether they come around.

5. (7) Chivas USA (%)
Another hat-tip to The Project: Chivas’ fourth-place looks a whole lot different when you look at the details: two games in hand and the best goal differential and best defensive record in the West suggests to me they’ll creep up the table.

6. (8) Houston Dynamo (%)
It’s not so much the three consecutive wins (against so-far decent teams no less...OK, except Columbus) as it’s the fact the charge is being led by the bench. Kinnear should force the stars to fight to regain their spots. But the controlling factor here was how Houston played even when they were losing: pretty well, overall, and they created chances. If Ching won’t score them, maybe Ngwenya will.

7. (9) FC Dallas (@)
This was one of the harder ones. For one, I think their defense is killing them; for two, one fat, possibly disgruntled, guy plus one (cruelly) injured player leads their forward line. So, why put them so high (OK, kinda high)? I suppose it’s because they’re #1 in the West for a reason. A basically solid May got lost behind two untimely, consecutive losses (5/26 and 6/3).

8. (4) Colorado Rapids (%)
It took a long time, but I’ve finally given up on Colorado - not completely, but just about. I still think they have the players, but, without that ol’ home-field magic - and 2-1-3 at home ain’t “magic” - they’re in for another roller-coaster season. They’ll kick around a team or two, but I can’t think of them as contenders any more (and can’t say why I ever did).

9. (7) Toronto FC ($)
The fact they can still slip, even at home, keeps the question marks handy with this team. They’re one home game away from a long, long road-trip that should go a good distance to pegging this team in the standings. Speaking for myself, I’ve got a feeling it’s not going to go well (I’m guessing between 6 and 10 points out of 24). I’m starting to feel a bit skittish about rating them this high.

10. (13) Columbus Crew ($)
Welcome to my biggest, dumbest longshot. I don’t know why, but I’m thinking Columbus, who only need a little confidence, will blitz a few teams and soon - quite possibly starting with New England this weekend. If I had a friendly, neighborhood sports-book, I’d go drop a wad on that game. My personal theory is that New England somehow cornered some kind of fixed quantity of luck within the Eastern Conference, and Columbus somehow lost their entire portion. They'll turn things around - to the point of respectability, at least.

11. (11) Chicago Fire (%)
I’m perfectly sincere in the view that this team is one Chad Barrett goal away from being widely viewed as worse than Columbus. And, obviously, since I placed ‘em one spot below I think they are worse.

12. (10) Los Angeles Galaxy (@)
Watching these guys over a full game was an eye-opening experience last weekend; their uninterested, disjointed second half was bad as anything I had seen in MLS all year. They’ll improve with the return of several starters (not just Donovan, but Ante Jazic and Kevin Harmse), but the total lack of depth makes me wonder how much...can’t wait to see the Western Conference Toilet Bowl this weekend (in which these hacks will meet the team immediately below).

13. (12) Real Salt Lake (idle - and, boy, did they need it)
Again, they can’t win (neither can Houston...or LA, for that matter; it just feels different). Moreover, I can’t see things improving dramatically. I want to, but I can’t.

Moving on to the standings (current official ones):

Eastern Conference
1. Red Bull New York: 20 pts. (6-3-2: 21 GF, 12 GA, +9; home, 4-1-0; away, 2-2-2)
2. Kansas City Wiz: 19 pts. (6-2-1: 19 GF, 12 GA, +7; home, 3-1-0; away, 3-1-1)
3. New England Revs: 18 pts. (5-2-3: 18 GF, 11 GA, +7; home, 2-1-1; away, 3-1-2)
4. DC United: 14 pts. (4-3-2: 14 GF, 13 GA, +1; home, 3-1-1; away, 1-2-1)
5. Chicago Fire: 14 pts. (4-5-2: 11 GF, 16 GA, -5; home, 3-2-1; away, 1-3-1)
6. Toronto FC: 10 pts. (3-6-1: 9 GF, 16 GA, -8; home, 3-3-0; away, 0-3-1)
7. Columbus Crew: 8 pts. (1-4-5: 9 GF, 15 GA, -6; home, 1-1-4; away, 0-3-1)

Western Conference
1. FC Dallas: 19 pts. (6-5-1: 17 GF, 17 GA, 0; home, 2-2-0; away, 3-3-1)
2. Houston Dynamo: 16 pts. (5-5-1: 11 GF, 10 GA, +1; home, 3-2-1; away, 2-3-0)
3. Colorado Rapids: 15 pts. (4-4-3: 13 GF, 14 GA, -1; home 2-1-3; away, 2-3-0)
4. Chivas USA: 14 pts. (4-3-2: 13 GF, 8 GA; +5; home, 3-0-1; away, 1-3-1)
5. Los Angeles Galaxy: 6 pts. (1-4-3: 8 GF, 11 GA, -3; home, 1-2-1; away, 0-2-2)
6. Real Salt Lake: 6 pts. (0-3-6: 7 GF, 14 GA, -7; home, 0-1-3; away, 0-2-3)

Week 8: Power Rankings + Standings

As usual, last week’s ranking appears in parentheses immediately after this week’s ranking. So as to not misrepresent my judgment as entirely first-hand, here’s a key for my viewing: “@” means I watched a given team’s most recent performance in its entirety; “$” means I caught it through Quick Kicks, which provides extended highlights; “&” means I watched only the rump highlights available through MLSnet.com. Later today, I’ll compare what I’ve got below with the other rankings I’ve found - though, as always, I compiled my rankings without reference to anyone else’s.

Before naming names and assigning numbers, here’s an important caveat: I’m only comfortable with my #1 pick. #2 - #5, that’s not so bad either. But everything from #6 up? It’s like half the teams in the damn league are fighting for last place. And I'm guessing my ranking slide around more than most to boot. Christ, what a mess.

Here goes...and after the rankings, you’ll find a current listing of the standings for the permanent record.

1. (1) Red Bull New York (&)
Even if the fact they reportedly let Chicago get back in it during this game’s (delicious, squishy) middle, they not only won by a robust margin, but look like they’ve got a good, deep team.

2. (5) Kansas City Wizards ($ + a good amount of @)
Oh, how they rise. It wasn’t so much the win - and the three goals allowed don’t impress much, though most were fluky and came against a green, make-shift defense - as it was how they looked in the attack. A confident Eddie Johnson feeding off Carlos Marinelli passes, supported by Davy Arnaud...well, you get the picture. They looked incisive, they looked good, and they beat a (mainly) strong team.

3. (4) Colorado Rapids ($)
The assist from the referee (the Kyle Martino red card and it was a fair one in my book) takes the shine off this win just a little. But look at the gol-durn competition. They salient fact is they won.

4. (2) New England Revolution ($ + a good amount of @)
These guys, on the other hand, did not win. Worse, they got twisted like slow-moving pretzels in defense. And they’re goals were lucky. While the fan part of wants to view Week 8’s performance as a good team hiccupping (bile), the cold, hard reality is the Revs have looked flat-out shitty on several occasions this year. This struck me as karma taking its pound of flesh - worse may follow. Then again, it may not.

5. (6) DC United (hearsay)
Three wins is three wins, y’know? Having seen exactly zero of those wins, I’ll probably have to sit down to watch these guys this weekend to see what they do against LA. Mmmm...on second thought, the three games on MLSlive.tv look more interesting...

6. (3) FC Dallas (@)
I tried - I mean really tried - to peg Chivas over FC Dallas. Couldn’t do it. Yeah, Dallas lost, but I think that had to do with their offense and midfield misfiring - and the fact that Dallas teams seem allergic to LA, speaking historically. They played lousy, but the defense gave away less than the score-line suggests. (Then again, having just completed the standings, I can in no way defend my contention that Dallas’ defense has improved. 2nd worst? Yikes.)

7. (3) Chivas USA (@)
In all honesty, I don’t think Chivas is the 7th best team in MLS. Hell, I might have looked good against Dallas last weekend. But they did win and some of the moves made in recent weeks - here I’m thinking Paolo Nagamura and Shavar Thomas - look to have plugged the right holes. So, for this week, they do deserve to be this high; I wouldn’t be shocked if they climb higher. I also wouldn’t be shocked if they got overtaken by some of the underperforming teams below.

8. (10) Toronto FC ($ + a good amount of @)
It’s not just picking up their first point on the road; it’s the scrappy this team shows. With a lot of teams sucking down a surprising amount of dirt, these guys may yet contend for the playoffs.

9. (8) Los Angeles Galaxy ($)
The flipside of DC: losses are losses and draws are draws, right? Get too many and it doesn’t matter who you’ve got or who is on their way.

10. (9) Houston Dynamo (hearsay)
Can’t score, in spite of frequently shelling the opposition goal. Brian Ching is only distantly familiar with the concept of form - ditto, and more disconcertingly, for Dwayne DeRosario. And Eddie Robinson is a thug...just thought I’d throw that in there.

11. (12) Columbus Crew ($ + a good amount of @)
Had I not seen the two goals actually go in the net, I would likely have doubted it happened; works on the same principle as miracles attributed to medieval figures. And then they go and let in two going the other way (so, one of ‘em was totally boffo, top-drawer, and all that) - at home no less. Beats losing, I suppose.

12. (13) Real Salt Lake ($)
I suspect I’ll be the only pundit out here shifting RSL out of the bottom spot. Do they still suck? Yep. But there’s one crucial difference between RSL and the team I slipped beneath them...

13. (7) Chicago Fire (& + $)
...and that’s that RSL seems to want to play for their coach; plus they’ve got the excuse of missing Carey Talley and, I don’t care what anyone says, picking up Richie Kotschau, who is good enough, helps. On the other hand, Dave “Dead Man Walking” Sarachan simply hasn’t done a lot right lately and the reinforcements either coming (Cuauhtemoc Blanco) or in play (Marcelo Salas) won’t do much about the goals the Fire are bleeding. Whatever ails this bunch, it’s frickin' serious - maybe even lethal...at least to those of the Sarachan tribe.

Moving on to the standings (official ones here):

Eastern Conference
1. Red Bull New York: 17 pts. (5-1-2: 15 GF, 4 GA, +11; home, 4-1-0; away, 1-0-2)
2. New England Revs: 17 pts. (5-1-2: 18 GF, 11 GA, +7; home, 2-1-0; away, 3-1-2)
3. Kansas City Wiz: 16 pts. (5-2-1: 16 GF, 10 GA, +6; home, 2-1-0; away, 3-1-1)
4. Chicago Fire: 11 pts. (3-4-2: 8 GF, 13 GA, -5; home, 2-1-1; away, 1-3-1)
5. DC United: 10 pts. (3-3-1: 10 GF, 11 GA, -1; home, 2-1-1; away, 1-2-0)
6. Columbus Crew: 8 pts. (1-2-5: 6 GF, 10 GA, -4; home, 1-0-4; away, 0-2-1)
7. Toronto FC: 7 pts. (2-5-1: 7 GF, 15 GA, -8; home, 2-2-0; away, 0-3-1)

Western Conference
1. FC Dallas: 16 pts. (5-4-1: 13 GF, 14 GA, -1; home, 2-2-0; away, 3-2-1)
2. Colorado Rapids: 15 pts. (4-2-3: 11 GF, 10 GA, +1; home 2-1-3; away, 2-1-0)
3. Chivas USA: 11 pts. (3-3-2: 12 GF, 8 GA; +4; home, 3-0-1; away, 0-3-1)
4. Houston Dynamo: 7 pts. (2-5-1: 5 GF, 7 GA, -2; home, 1-2-1; away, 1-3-0)
5. Los Angeles Galaxy: 5 pts. (1-3-2: 7 GF, 8 GA, -1; home, 1-2-0; away, 0-1-2)
6. Real Salt Lake: 5 pts. (0-3-5: 7 GF, 14 GA, -7; home, 0-1-3; away, 0-2-2)

Week 7: Power Rankings & Standings

As usual, last week’s ranking appears in parentheses immediately after this week’s ranking. So as to not misrepresent my judgment as entirely first-hand, the following key shows the distance of my observations: “@” means I watched a given team’s most recent performance in its entirety; “$” means I caught it through Quick Kicks, which provides extended highlights; “&” means I watched only the rump highlights available through MLSnet.com. Later today, I’ll compare what I’ve got below with everyone else’s rankings by combining them in a formula that, 1) may or may not be totally bogus, and, 2) could very well be nothing more than a rehash of ESPN’s results and methodology. Still, I won’t even peek anyone else’s picks till after I’ve written and posted mine.

A current shot of the standings appear at the bottom and, having reviewed Week 6’s rankings, I can honestly say I don’t know what the hell I was thinking on a few of them. With regard to this week’s rankings, I’ll be honest: after the first two, 3-5 felt basically interchangeable and I have no freakin’ clue what to order the bottom half of the table - very plausible reasons exist for dumping the lot of them below the #11 spot; for the record, however, I’m pretty comfortable with my #6.

Here goes...and after the rankings, you’ll find a current listing of the standings for the permanent record.

1. (3) Red Bull New York ($)
Though far from perfect lately, scoring four goals against the typically tough Crew - not to mention scoring them steadily throughout the game - speaks well of a team. People tell me Angel is online; I’ll have to keep my eyes peeled there.

2. (1) New England Revolution (@)
Call this the echo to the raspberry Steve Nicol spat out when asked to judge his team’s performance against the Dynamo. Here’s the deal: the Revs have played badly more often than well; a handy symbol for the extent to which they’re riding their luck came in the win over LA, when Taylor Twellman’s header pinged off the crossbar directly into his run; that happens once in every 100 instances.

3. (7) FC Dallas (@)
If it were possible to convince myself Dallas was better than New England, the latter would have slipped further. They climb high as they did because two wins are two wins - even if they came against one team miles-off form (the Fire) and another outright bad one (RSL).

4. (4) Colorado Rapids (&)
Uninspiring as a home draw may be, I read good things about Colorado’s performance. And KC is tough enough to make a draw sound good.

5. (6) Kansas City Wizards (&)
Um, what I said above, but switch the “home” to “away.” Also, it’s good to see Eddie Johnson’s name in the mix.

6. (9) DC United ($)
Slowly, it’s starting to happen...even if they rely on the ref’s generosity to seal the deal. Say what you will, but DC did what neither Houston nor Chicago could - they beat Toronto at home.

7. (10) Chicago Fire (@ - 1/2 hour anyway)
I won’t pretend that three straight losses don’t matter, but at least they’re scoring. But they also had Dallas on their heels for the final thirty; moreover, if Thiago bangs that header a couple inches to the right, that changes the conversation about both Chicago and FC Dallas.

8. (5) Los Angeles Galaxy (&)
If it weren’t for the incredible crap turned in by the rest of the field, I’d ding the Galaxy harder for drawing the lowly Goats. As everyone noted, Landon scored - so what do these guys do when there is no Landon?

9. (2) Houston Dynamo ($ + @)
It took the undistilled bitterness at the Dynamo’s part in their awful, awful game against the Revs to justify this 7-place drop. As with Dallas, albeit staring into a cracked mirror, two losses are two losses. And I don’t know if these guys are ever going to score again. It wasn’t till I actually sat down to think about it that I realized Houston has scored in ONLY two of their seven games this season. To be clear, that really, really sucks.

10. (11) Toronto FC ($)
The loss to DC should drag these guys back down to earth. But TFC is also becoming worth a look - and not just for a laugh. This weekend’s game on the road against the Crew positively screams “statement.”

11. (13) Chivas USA (&)
If it weren’t for Maykel Galindo, these cats would be RSL-bad. Recent acquisitions (Paolo Nagamura; Shavar Thomas) should make them more solid, so I expect them to climb a bit. Not a minute too soon, though.

12. (8) Columbus Crew ($)
The offense sucks bad enough; add in the already proved capacity for defensive collapses (Red Bull and the draw against New England) and you’re looking at a top-to-bottom bad team.

13. (12) Real Salt Lake (@)
They suck. It’s not much more complicated than that.

Moving on to the standings (official ones here):

Eastern Conference:
1. New England Revs: 17 pts. (5-1-2: 15 GF, 7 GA, +8; home, 2-0-0; away, 3-1-2)
2. Red Bull New York: 14 pts. (4-1-2: 8 GF, 4 GA, +8; home, 3-1-0; away, 1-0-2)
3. Kansas City Wiz: 13 pts. (4-2-1: 12 GF, 7 GA, +5; home, 2-1-0; away, 2-1-1)
4. Chicago Fire: 10 pts. (3-3-1: 8 GF, 10 GA, -2; home, 2-1-0; away, 1-1-1)
5. DC United: 7 pts. (2-3-1: 8 GF, 10 GA, -2; home, 1-1-1; away, 1-2-0)
6. Columbus Crew: 7 pts. (1-2-4: 4 GF, 8 GA, -4; home, 1-0-3; away, 0-2-1)
7. Toronto FC: 6 pts. (2-5-0: 5 GF, 13 GA, -8; home, 2-2-0; away, 0-3-0)

Western Conference
1. FC Dallas: 16 pts. (5-3-1: 13 GF, 12 GA, +1; home, 2-2-0; away, 3-1-1)
2. Colorado Rapids: 12 pts. (3-2-3: 10 GF, 10 GA, 0; home 1-1-3; away, 2-1-0)
3. Chivas USA: 8 pts. (2-3-2: 10 GF, 8 GA; +2; home, 2-0-1; away, 0-3-1)
4. Houston Dynamo: 7 pts. (2-4-1: 4 GF, 5 GA, -1; home, 1-2-1; away, 1-2-0)
5. Los Angeles Galaxy: 5 pts. (1-2-2: 7 GF, 7 GA, 0; home, 1-2-0; away, 0-0-2)
6. Real Salt Lake: 4 pts. (0-3-4: 7 GF, 14 GA, -7; home, 0-1-3; away, 0-2-1)

Week 6 Power-Rankings Round-Up (check my math)

As I was about to explain in long-hand form the collection of 9+ power rankings I pulled together to study, it occurred to me that a mathematical method of some sort could make sense of it all more efficiently. It turns out all those math teachers who swore I'd use what they taught me were right...though it's also likely they didn't entertain the possibility I would misapply the tools they provided.

Call that my caveat for this post: I'm not totally sure that what I've done is mathematically valid, but it seems good enough - and that's why I'm posting.

By way of source material, I found power rankings posted on nine different sites - the "+" that appears above came about because, due to the format - which splits Eastern and Western Conferences - I can't use the rankings from Who Ate All the Cupcakes; but I like the author's stuff well enough to give him a shout-out regardless.

The other nine, however, appear below. After listing them, I'll redo the power rankings by placing all 13 MLS teams in the order of the average ranking they received across all nine outlets/blogs. Here's a list of the source material:

It's a Simple Game (mine obviously - LINK)
Sports Illustrated (Ryan Hunt) LINK
WVHooligan LINK
Soccer by Ives LINK
Sideline Views (Luis Bueno) LINK
Orlando Sentinel LINK (bonus for great format)
My Soccer Blog LINK
MLS Underground LINK
Finally, ESPN, the grand-daddy of them all: LINK

And now, here's how MLS's 13 teams stack up when you average the scores awarded to each of the teams by all nine outlets; for poops and giggles, I listed the high and low figure for each MLS club.

1. New England Revolution: 1.0 (Yep, they were the universal #1)
2. Red Bull New York: 2.7 (best, 2; worst, 4)
3. Kansas City Wizards: 3.9 (best, 2; worst, 6 - big spread on them)
4. Colorado Rapids: 3.9 (best, 2; worst, 7 - still bigger spread)
5. Houston Dynamo: 4.7 (best, 2; worst, 7 - ditto)
6. FC Dallas: 5.3 (best, 4; worst, 7 - 5 heavy; I gave the 7)
7. Chicago Fire: 7.6 (best, 6; worst, 10 - 7 heavy; I gave the 10)
8. Los Angeles Galaxy: 8.2 (best, 5; worst, 10 - pretty random; I gave the 5)
9. DC United: 9.7 (best, 8; worst, 11 - small range, wide variety)
10. Columbus Crew: 10.6 (best, 6; worst, 11)
11. Chivas USA: 10.8 (best, 8; worst, 13 - 10, 11 heavy)
12. Toronto FC: 11.9 (best, 10; worst, 13 - 12, 13 heavy)
13. Real Salt Lake: 12.6 (best, 12; worst, 13 - pretty conclusive)

So, there you have it. That may or may not give a handy snapshot of the conventional wisdom. I suspect it does, even if the ranges on some teams is a worry.

Talk at y'all tomorrow.

(#########)

Week 6: Power Rankings + Standings

I won’t lie: my week has been so thoroughly fucked up it makes a $20 whore look positively chaste (sorry, horrible analogy). But I’m soldiering on with power rankings and, later, I’ll compare those with everyone else’s to give an approximation of how observers see teams stacking up. I won’t even peek at those, however, till after I’ve written and posted what appears below.

As usual, last week’s ranking appears in parentheses immediately after this week’s ranking. So’s as to not misrepresent my judgment as entirely first-hand, the following key shows the distance of my observations: “@” means I watched a given team’s most recent performance in its entirety; “$” means I caught it through Quick Kicks, which provides extended highlights; “&” means I watched only the rump highlights available through MLSnet.com.

Here goes...and after the rankings, you’ll find a current listing of the standings for the permanent record.

1. (2) New England Revolution (@)
I’ll have something up elsewhere stating my belief that New England showed itself to be the first “good” team in the 2007 season. The logic here is pretty simple: they’re the only team doing fairly well on both sides of the ball and taking care of business both home and away. The question is whether they can keep it up - I mean, how often to forwards have the rebound fall perfectly?

2. (3) Houston Dynamo (idle)
As much as inching an idle team up the table seems a little silly, the other teams did it to themselves. I’m not sold on this bunch yet; having only one rock-star offensive game makes this a highly precarious #2 ranking.

3. (1) Red Bull New York (&)
It’s not losing to the Rapids so much as it’s, y’know, everything: the draw to RSL, the Open Cup thing, a key player (Claudio Reyna) who seems too fragile to last, etc. Clint Mathis says they’re slipping; the question is can they turn it around?

4. (6) Colorado Rapids (& + &)
During their two-game Week 6, Colorado showed two things: a kind of resilience and proof that they have not grown out of their penchant for erratic play. They do have the weapons, though, even if Dan Gargan isn’t one of them.

5. (5) Los Angeles Galaxy (@)
Call me crazy - and I’m sure Frank Yallop would - but I liked a lot of what I saw out of these guys against New England. I’d go so far as to say they’d beat - let’s do a quick count - seven, even eight teams in this league playing like that. Cannon is still a force and signs of life from Martino mean plenty for this group.

6. (4) Kansas City Wizards ($)
This isn’t bad as it looks. To begin, I still think this is a playoff team. And from the sounds of it, they outplayed Dallas. But they DID lose.

7. (8) FC Dallas ($)
Based on what I read and saw, Dario Sala hauled their butts through this one - then again, a ‘keeper like that counts for something. Nice to see Cooper score again, while Abe Thompson’s performance shows they have a little depth. Also noted: even the Kansas City paper had nice things to say about their defense. They do ride their luck a little, but they’re also looking good enough...to do what? Well...

8. (10) Columbus Crew (@)
The Crew may owe me the two hours of my life I spent watching this, but there’s no denying this team can defend. But - damn! - do they have a toothless attack, even with the new editions. Still, one-half competent puts them ahead of the teams below.

9. (9) DC United (idle)
Seems appropriate to let their ranking idle as they did. They looked better in Week 5, but have to show a bit more in coming games to get back into the Land of Playoff Contention.

10. (7) Chicago Fire (@)
The Fire gets hit with the Big Drop this week, not because they were Toronto’s first victims, but in the way they’ve lost over the past two weekends. Take away Chris Rolfe and they go from a one-man to a no-man offense. That’s bad enough, but it’s nothing next to the ever-fraying defensive displays; the way this team positively WILTS against counter-attacks renders them almost incapable of chasing a game.

11. (13) Toronto FC (@)
Well, that was fun. I think I wrote this before, but I could have sworn these teams swapped jerseys at the half. Still, I’ll note as everyone did the nice atmosphere on the day and all that. We’ll see tonight (well, and in the future) whether or not Toronto has figured out playing in MLS.

12. (12) Real Salt Lake (&)
As much as I’m hearing decent things about the changes introduced by new coach Jason Kreis (two forwards?? - gasp), these guys still don’t have a W to call their own. Till they get one....well, maybe I’m being more generous to them than I am to the guys below. Still, one doesn’t need the -8 goal differential to know TFC remains a struggling team.

13. (11) Chivas USA (@)
Is it Preki’s fault? Hell, I dunno. What I do know is, the (hungover, Sunday park club) mistakes that defense made would have been ruthlessly punished by any team other than Houston. And with their attack essentially drying up, these guys don’t have much going for them.

Moving on to the standings (official ones here):

Eastern Conference:
1. New England Revs: 14 pts. (4-1-2: 14 GF, 7 GA, +7; home, 2-0-0; away, 2-1-2)
2. Kansas City Wiz: 12 pts. (4-2-0: 11 GF, 6 GA, +5; home, 2-1-0; away, 2-1-0)
3. Red Bull New York: 11 pts. (3-1-2: 8 GF, 4 GA, +4; home, 2-1-0; away, 1-0-2)
4. Chicago Fire: 10 pts. (3-2-1: 7 GF, 8 GA, -1; home, 2-0-0; away, 1-1-1)
5. Columbus Crew: 7 pts. (1-1-4: 4 GF, 4 GA, 0; home, 1-0-3; away, 0-1-1)
6. DC United: 4 pts. (1-3-1: 6 GF, 9 GA, -3; home, 1-1-1; away, 0-2-0)
7. Toronto FC: 0 pts. (1-4-0: 3 GF, 11 GA, -8; home, 1-1-0; away, 0-3-0)

Western Conference
1. Colorado Rapids: 11 pts. (3-2-2: 9 GF, 9 GA, 0; home 1-1-2; away, 2-1-0)
2. FC Dallas: 10 pts. (3-3-1: 9 GF, 10 GA, -1; home, 1-2-0; away, 1-1-1)
3. Chivas USA: 7 pts. (2-3-1: 9 GF, 7 GA; +2; home, 2-0-0; away, 0-3-1)
4. Houston Dynamo: 7 pts. (2-2-1: 4 GF, 3 GA, +1; home, 1-1-1; away, 1-1-0)
5. Los Angeles Galaxy: 4 pts. (1-2-1: 6 GF, 6 GA, 0; home, 1-2-0; away, 0-0-1)
6. Real Salt Lake: 3 pts. (0-3-3: 6 GF, 12 GA, -6; home, 0-1-3; away, 0-1-0)